Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x567c2963a9e2c2314149940e2699a0729a8bf75f40c1d2f41838d87fbf49b2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes | 1c | 160,765$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 47c | 821.72$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.29 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 791.16$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 37c | 737.92$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 524.21$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 55c | 506.77$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.07 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a3a4backed Yes | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 37c | 415.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 48c | 399.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 78c | 386$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 43c | 369.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 353.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 41c | 345.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked No | 71c | 296$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…5886backed Yes | 47c | 267.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 66c | 249.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 43c | 208.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 64c | 189$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 49c | 170.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 26c | 136.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 134.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 48c | 133$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 64c | 113$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 66c | 102.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 41c | 100.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…4699backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 25c | 99.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 95.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 35c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 44c | 94.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked No | 68c | 88.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed No | 68c | 85.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 50c | 72.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes | 56c | 71.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 33c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 30c | 63.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 49c | 62.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Yes | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…8b37backed No | 52c | 50.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 34c | 45.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…2b4abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 58c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…6a45backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 55c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 55c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…0c13backed Yes | 62c | 30.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 57c | 28.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…a303backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.