TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x71f0…a3e8backed Yes1c160,765$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes0c5,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes47c821.72$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2927534.2%94 W · 181 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No52c791.16$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…0a08backed Yes37c737.92$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.09850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes52c524.21$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.984,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No55c506.77$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.073948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a3a4backed Yes49c499.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes37c415.21$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5778…4581backed Yes48c399.97$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.983046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0a…eed1backed No78c386$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863470.6%24 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5571…0346backed Yes43c369.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c353.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf385…364cbacked Yes41c345.1$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked No71c296$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc56…5886backed Yes47c267.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+215.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes20c249.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038410.7%41 W · 343 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+103.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f3…48e4backed No66c249.67$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.056264.5%40 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes43c208.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.776731.3%21 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009954.5%54 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9854529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked No64c189$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No49c170.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.955756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c25…87c0backed Yes26c136.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.884146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c134.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7884759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64c7…352ebacked Yes48c133$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1517532%56 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes34c130$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked No64c113$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes66c102.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No41c100.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2715749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f9…4699backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3336…87adbacked Yes49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes25c99.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.851,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe939…b40bbacked Yes31c96.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No47c95.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.321,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Yes35c95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes44c94.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes33c89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked No68c88.03$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.921553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2561…d456backed No68c85.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.962152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed No64c82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes50c72.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.931,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes56c71.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5284930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes30c63.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.061323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes49c62.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Yes36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Yes36c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Yes24c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34e…8b37backed No52c50.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.546423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc107…0137backed Yes34c45.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48016.3%13 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ba…2b4abacked Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes58c43.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e79…6a45backed Yes54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13a…6bb5backed Yes36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes55c36.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes36c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7621…c580backed No55c32.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd63c…c0fabacked No55c32.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.492445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffcb…0c13backed Yes62c30.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48563.5%54 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Yes54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66723.9%16 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2825130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed No64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked No57c28.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.432420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Yes36c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb5…a303backed Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.