TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,594,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,622,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,594,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 560 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes0c148,600$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…4d7dbacked Yes9c103,025$9,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,064.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes0c76,673$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.671338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Yes77c58,561$45,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,203.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6601…25f4backed Yes72c57,612$41,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,522.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes68c50,148$34,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,151.53716.2%6 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes19c33,918$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,577.8780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c3…b4fabacked No19c33,009$6,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,637.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+418.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33cf…8780backed No22c31,894$7,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,790.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+349%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes1c30,494$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43013525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed No68c30,201$20,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,791.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…3da6backed No70c28,485$19,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,589.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes1c26,006$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b4…e432backed Yes0c24,579$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+57.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa884…3e76backed Yes26c22,348$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,828.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No20c21,233$4,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,062.967650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ccf…eac1backed Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7294…6971backed Yes0c20,640$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb4f…0d86backed No26c19,360$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,345.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+126.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x108e…d5d0backed No13c16,562$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,465.87450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+150.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed No20c14,534$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,628.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e58…205abacked No46c13,595$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,363.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fd…1b5dbacked Yes79c13,417$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,650.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No19c12,871$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,409.6243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes79c12,410$9,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,865.241145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No24c11,672$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,815.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+70%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0eb…6375backed No22c11,187$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,684.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+361.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25af…d2b7backed No18c11,066$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,066.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+453.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf191…09f6backed Yes77c10,711$8,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,228.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6a…2ae6backed Yes78c10,513$8,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,151.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5609…b1cbbacked Yes78c10,319$7,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,998.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf175…3008backed No13c10,126$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,826.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+289.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed No17c10,119$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,380.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94de…5679backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66ac…06d6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e0…ddc1backed No19c9,940$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,027.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+419.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9e…1da7backed No5c9,763$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,245.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,786.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d4…1d50backed Yes68c9,500$6,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,501.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54dc…12eebacked No32c9,300$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,303.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No21c8,608$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,833.076131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c8,326$6,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.888838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf87…9200backed Yes77c8,172$6,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,318.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No29c7,991$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.842025%5 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e7a…f429backed Yes65c7,681$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed No29c7,477$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,284.342458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1618…a456backed Yes5c7,473$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+108.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0abc…3baebacked Yes79c7,405$5,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,861.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88dc…eb22backed No21c7,085$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,585.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+363.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed No11c6,937$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,186.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+362.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd859…951ebacked No19c6,541$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+439.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f28…c784backed No32c6,218$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes78c5,487$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes68c5,255$3,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,597.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0485…103ebacked No12c5,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick6cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e06…15d5backed No5c4,698$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,463.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+1,041.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No12c4,549$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,018.6112133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…83cdbacked Yes71c4,524$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+236%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f77…ead2backed Yes79c4,473$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,533.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No17c4,395$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f0…f002backed No23c4,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+331.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked No16c4,273$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.661030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes74c4,248$3,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.058440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c31…ea4bbacked No26c4,242$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,140.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+165.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No46c4,165$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.594148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0783…8e5abacked No27c3,842$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+194.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No21c3,816$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.5614033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff1…6c6bbacked No11c3,746$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+358.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd7…441abacked No20c3,735$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+398.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes79c3,684$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.2910233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2877…2f89backed Yes8c3,500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes80c3,499$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick55cpaid-78.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No16c3,490$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.893023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e53…e7a9backed No29c3,435$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+243.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1a…1046backed No32c3,327$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee4…5b91backed No5c3,264$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,633.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No48c3,218$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.6414947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae4b…1327backed No22c3,215$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+516.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No37c3,204$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.815648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f1…6600backed No25c3,095$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a91…e219backed No3c2,927$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.471100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Yes35c2,880$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes80c2,855$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.935230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8a…b061backed No21c2,809$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf751…35e7backed No13c2,764$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+493.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7283backed No31c2,750$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.47450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+180%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2a…a607backed Yes75c2,673$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98dc…3ffcbacked Yes73c2,657$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cc…9f51backed No42c2,614$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes77c2,555$1,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.451250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes72c2,533$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+185.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d5…6f6abacked No11c2,496$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.811030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…013ebacked No22c2,463$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+441.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe301…9434backed No41c2,451$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed No26c2,429$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…b93fbacked No44c2,399$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9a…1360backed Yes64c2,371$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed No12c2,361$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+724.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f54…2c94backed Yes77c2,345$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8474…247bbacked No17c2,325$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b3…de01backed No29c2,232$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+150.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.