World Politics · resolved market
Will another candidate Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b695afb2a8a7365da46d41863107d09f6756f0e99a7da1da49a558dd0dff586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $537,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 0c | 53,364$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +260.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed Yes | 4c | 21,170$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 3c | 18,685$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.71 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 0c | 18,331$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 1c | 14,662$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 4c | 10,698$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…2527backed Yes | 4c | 10,002$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…103ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 6cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…ba27backed Yes | 1c | 8,245$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…251ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,311$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…1c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,938$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…d5d0backed Yes | 3c | 6,583$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 2c | 6,562$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 3c | 6,369$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…422dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,958$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 5,386$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 1c | 5,067$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…244dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,258$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 1c | 4,111$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…d756backed Yes | 1c | 4,038$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…65a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…37fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 8c | 2,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…d46ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,572$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…ddd9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…17fbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 3c | 1,922$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 2c | 1,886$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7494backed Yes | 1c | 1,601$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…e51bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6d…dc05backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…4d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 888$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a416backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 4c | 512.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 4c | 487.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…710fbacked Yes | 3c | 295.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +427%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another candidate Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?this page
- Will Antonio Ecarri Angola Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?No won
- Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?Yes won
- Will Javier Bertucci Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?No won
- Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.