TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Pelicans, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,006,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$986,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,006,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4c8…fed1backed Pelicans23c44,244$10,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,176.123748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Warriors75c40,254$30,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,064.6713455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors77c39,747$30,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,141.8272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Warriors77c32,468$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,467.5334062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pelicans23c30,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans23c28,327$6,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,648.5135235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0630…d067backed Warriors76c26,148$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,148.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pelicans21c24,656$5,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,061.2137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Pelicans37c24,166$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0005139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Pelicans31c23,016$7,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,162.6926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Pelicans25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors76c19,542$14,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.072,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Warriors58c18,996$11,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,980.8617331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans30c18,709$5,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,531.955,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Pelicans29c17,653$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.116848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eef…76bbbacked Warriors76c15,990$12,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+126.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Warriors79c12,315$9,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.115551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors78c12,052$9,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.952,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Warriors75c11,319$8,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.9848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans26c11,231$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.233,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors74c11,196$8,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.931,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pelicans26c11,111$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.8627251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2970…8d1ebacked Pelicans24c11,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Pelicans21c11,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9956945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Pelicans21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Warriors75c9,648$7,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.4544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors75c9,619$7,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.4269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Pelicans20c8,790$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.856952.2%36 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pelicans26c8,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44ed…fe99backed Warriors78c7,764$6,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans29c7,270$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.161,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors73c7,047$5,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.621,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Warriors75c6,359$4,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.0672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pelicans23c6,289$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.4723245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Warriors77c6,288$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.243551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pelicans25c6,216$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.2248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors70c5,990$4,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Pelicans9c5,963$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.21,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans22c5,848$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.024,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Warriors70c5,633$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.2173649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Pelicans19c5,297$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.417731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors75c5,026$3,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.841,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5341…2b42backed Pelicans20c5,006$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Pelicans21c4,917$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.512138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Pelicans20c4,844$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.7415443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors70c4,506$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.262,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Pelicans6c4,500$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Warriors76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Pelicans25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9934855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed Warriors67c3,918$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.512050%10 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pelicans23c3,677$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.721,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans1c3,437$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.18820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Pelicans20c3,413$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.5348132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Warriors79c3,333$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.9328850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pelicans23c3,333$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.5876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Warriors66c3,000$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.5616750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef72…5295backed Warriors64c3,000$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.86944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93c…ae06backed Pelicans24c2,900$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+74.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans28c2,865$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.31,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans25c2,829$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.331,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Pelicans27c2,688$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.044656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18b0…a62dbacked Pelicans18c2,686$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.56933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Warriors77c2,599$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.1618764.7%121 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Warriors76c2,592$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7a…d80abacked Pelicans17c2,353$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Pelicans20c2,294$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.8429858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Pelicans24c2,294$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.181,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Pelicans19c2,209$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3424038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Warriors74c2,179$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.9281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2e90backed Warriors63c2,100$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7771553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c22…adc0backed Pelicans22c2,096$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7c…2b74backed Pelicans17c2,064$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans22c2,049$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Pelicans35c2,016$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.62759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Warriors62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76016136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Warriors75c2,000$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49526247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Warriors77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fff…cc78backed Pelicans24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Pelicans23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Pelicans23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9911649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans24c2,000$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.192,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pelicans27c1,849$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3176249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans9c1,845$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.463,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Pelicans20c1,817$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.5410235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans21c1,800$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.92,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Pelicans35c1,709$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.0731044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Pelicans17c1,708$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5850239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Warriors75c1,667$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.6736943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2366…6fe9backed Warriors67c1,651$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.63043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Pelicans23c1,629$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.0261835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b0…6a6bbacked Pelicans24c1,538$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans21c1,509$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.892,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Pelicans3c1,505$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1525016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Pelicans26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3908048.8%39 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Pelicans21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9917931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Pelicans24c1,479$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.440035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Pelicans21c1,457$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0415945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.