NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afc3fc8af33c4266eb941610fc70facf5181f16558763b7c477b0d564987332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.98 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 14,197$7,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,177.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 3,083$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…7c03backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7258…b1dbbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 58c | 1,274$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 998$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…6fe9backed Over | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 560$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 535.23$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.78 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 471.04$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Over | 14c | 321.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 50c | 301.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 49c | 297$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Over | 52c | 205.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…74ccbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Under | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Under | 49c | 81.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 62.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 51c | 50.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Under | 50c | 37.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Under | 53c | 30.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 53c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5this page
- Pelicans vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.