NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681c0299ea5a3ffefbaf30fcfca878be84d4d327cf79242b65d7b6d977eecf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 55c | 5,515$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.95 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans | 45c | 5,108$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.1 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 49c | 2,581$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 51c | 2,475$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pelicans | 44c | 693.18$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Pelicans | 56c | 506.56$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.67 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 45c | 479.46$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Warriors | 53c | 397.85$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Warriors | 57c | 212.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Warriors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Warriors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Pelicans | 46c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Warriors | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 43c | 137.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 48c | 115.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Pelicans | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Warriors | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Pelicans | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Warriors | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Warriors | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Warriors | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Warriors | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc695…0371backed Warriors | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Warriors | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Warriors | 57c | 51.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Warriors | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Warriors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Pelicans | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Pelicans | 43c | 34.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pelicans | 43c | 34.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Warriors | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Warriors | 55c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Warriors | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.