NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a2e6044591ee0f71c70f1972d26fcd57c9f8133cfc77bfc9ffe44f449d28f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Warriors, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Pelicans | 48c | 7,957$3,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,108.69 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 51c | 4,965$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 53c | 3,656$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.52 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 47c | 3,404$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Warriors | 52c | 1,980$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 52c | 1,414$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.8 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 49c | 1,375$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Pelicans | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 51c | 944$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 54c | 904$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…fc45backed Warriors | 55c | 726.64$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 50c | 602.93$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Pelicans | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Pelicans | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 50c | 440$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Warriors | 51c | 304.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 45c | 272.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pelicans | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Warriors | 48c | 165.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Pelicans | 51c | 157$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Warriors | 52c | 152.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Pelicans | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Pelicans | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…4505backed Pelicans | 49c | 131.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…e305backed Warriors | 51c | 105.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 48c | 90.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Warriors | 48c | 77.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Warriors | 60c | 72.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…5462backed Pelicans | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Warriors | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Warriors | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pelicans | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Pelicans | 53c | 40.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Pelicans | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Pelicans | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Pelicans | 50c | 33.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Warriors | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Warriors | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Pelicans | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Warriors | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.