NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fbe406ced10eae6d92ff759d957f0e0dd695b59c2b76da09d3ce481298dec78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 7,674$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Over | 53c | 7,648$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.03 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 53c | 2,829$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,623$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.84 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Over | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Over | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…13d0backed Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 46c | 1,283$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.44 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,124$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 831.91$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.91 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 47c | 756$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.68 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 47c | 640$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.2 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 218$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 48c | 212.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 47c | 185$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 133.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 51c | 119.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Under | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 47c | 75.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 21.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5this page
- Pelicans vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.