NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bbc789db314f45ed44fde8a0aca25cf9e1d178059ba77c2a62d753c74e3880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Warriors, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,195,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,199,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,195,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Warriors | 52c | 1,168,676$610,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610,000 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Pelicans | 48c | 548,696$260,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287,809.14 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans | 48c | 380,820$182,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197,871.71 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Pelicans | 48c | 100,000$48,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 47c | 60,130$28,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,065.74 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 49c | 44,049$21,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,503.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Pelicans | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 50c | 6,961$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,506.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 49c | 5,630$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 48c | 5,233$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Pelicans | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.2 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 48c | 4,797$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 48c | 2,799$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.58 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Pelicans | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Pelicans | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pelicans | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,205$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.58 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Pelicans | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 48c | 875.93$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Pelicans | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Pelicans | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 48c | 233.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Pelicans | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Pelicans | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Pelicans | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Pelicans | 48c | 165.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Warriors | 62c | 161.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Pelicans | 52c | 153$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Pelicans | 50c | 152.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pelicans | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Pelicans | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Warriors | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Warriors | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pelicans | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Pelicans | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Pelicans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Warriors | 49c | 95.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…3adfbacked Warriors | 50c | 81.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Pelicans | 51c | 77.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Warriors | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 46c | 69.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Pelicans | 51c | 61.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Pelicans | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Pelicans | 51c | 42.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Pelicans | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Warriors | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ba69backed Warriors | 51c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Pelicans | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Warriors | 49c | 24.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Warriors | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a7…ecdfbacked Pelicans | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Pelicans | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…1ea5backed Pelicans | 55c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.