TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2366…6fe9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST3043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Mavericksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+78.6%+$1,571.43
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Mavericks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+72.4%+$362.07
Spurs vs. Hawksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+78.6%+$392.86
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+104.1%+$325.9
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+100%+$200
Magic vs. Knicksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$788.45
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+69.5%+$347.46
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+112.4%+$156.96
Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Pelicans vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+49.9%+$549.6
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$47.5
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$121
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,528Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,528.39
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+596.1%+$5,493.17
Kings vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+92.3%+$442.63
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+37%+$184.93
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Cavaliers vs. Hawksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Army vs. Navybacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+55.6%+$1,111.61
Utah State vs. Fresno Statebacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+117.4%+$21.6
Spread: Central Michigan (-9.5)backed Kent State Golden Flashes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
Wyoming vs. Fresno Statebacked Fresno State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$21.54
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+185.7%+$27.86
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+138.1%+$20.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Panthers vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+28.2%+$11.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+249.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+249.7%+$249.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+72.4%+$217.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.