Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x547ef94db08a64532c8e8a57a90a5e680ee775e9e9c790ac092cad123a051ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,362,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,444,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,362,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 804 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 1c | 1,133,667$11,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,959.28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked No | 8c | 461,362$38,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,924.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 4c | 123,910$5,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,301.43 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 10c | 113,859$10,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,955.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 7c | 97,052$6,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,618.76 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 2c | 80,775$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.49 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 7c | 75,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…5b59backed No | 8c | 68,000$5,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,665.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 15c | 66,672$9,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,709.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 2c | 66,052$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…425dbacked No | 10c | 58,938$5,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,920.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 5c | 58,368$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.78 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…e17fbacked No | 7c | 57,866$4,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 10c | 50,125$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e907backed No | 10c | 49,810$4,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,965.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…6123backed No | 9c | 47,546$4,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,117.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 12c | 43,173$5,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,065.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 2c | 43,050$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 4c | 42,572$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.6 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cb…ecb7backed No | 18c | 41,866$7,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,405.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 14c | 41,301$5,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,665.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…7b0bbacked No | 18c | 40,490$7,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,274.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 2c | 39,870$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 8c | 39,000$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.87 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 6c | 37,810$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…6c8bbacked No | 4c | 36,196$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…f801backed No | 7c | 35,948$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…c64fbacked No | 12c | 33,386$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed No | 7c | 32,725$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 6c | 32,375$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 14c | 31,518$4,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,380.19 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0c…7923backed No | 11c | 30,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…c4dbbacked No | 5c | 28,136$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…8f80backed No | 6c | 26,951$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 2c | 25,208$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.14 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…de12backed No | 5c | 24,237$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked No | 17c | 24,035$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked No | 15c | 23,243$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x621d…5447backed No | 9c | 23,196$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 8c | 22,539$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 5c | 21,702$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.41 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 5c | 21,111$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.77 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 6c | 21,000$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.56 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 20,161$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.59 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…4abdbacked No | 10c | 20,000$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 8c | 19,955$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.84 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…d360backed No | 8c | 19,750$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bb…43dcbacked No | 15c | 19,620$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 6c | 19,172$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 19,160$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.05 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed No | 3c | 17,999$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 8c | 17,630$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b19…98f5backed No | 7c | 17,624$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed No | 5c | 17,387$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 5c | 16,880$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 9c | 16,500$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31da…1666backed No | 2c | 16,416$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…fe9cbacked No | 10c | 16,226$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 15,994$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.64 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…12bebacked No | 5c | 15,781$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 13c | 15,415$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…a9f1backed No | 7c | 15,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked No | 12c | 15,155$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 10c | 15,001$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b7…87c4backed No | 8c | 14,816$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 9c | 14,551$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.43 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked No | 7c | 14,544$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 12c | 14,441$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.67 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed No | 3c | 14,157$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…02bebacked No | 4c | 12,570$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed No | 11c | 11,979$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…b4f4backed No | 4c | 11,631$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 15c | 11,357$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.04 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 7c | 11,317$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.18 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 10c | 11,174$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 1c | 11,163$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…e91ebacked No | 10c | 11,062$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…3f07backed No | 8c | 11,023$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +133%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…fa1fbacked No | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed No | 10c | 10,997$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked No | 5c | 10,956$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.89 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…427abacked No | 8c | 10,600$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.7 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…0729backed No | 15c | 10,409$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d1…aaf8backed No | 2c | 10,240$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 5c | 10,035$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked No | 4c | 9,952$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed No | 15c | 9,761$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 9c | 9,634$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.69 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed No | 3c | 9,631$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd5…aa9ebacked No | 4c | 9,624$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 7c | 9,481$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.36 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…8158backed No | 12c | 9,316$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…39c0backed No | 3c | 9,310$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 18c | 9,249$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…0401backed No | 9c | 9,230$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…3f65backed No | 11c | 9,124$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked No | 6c | 8,700$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…9d73backed No | 15c | 8,675$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed No | 14c | 8,669$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.29 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 10c | 8,526$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.