Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,894,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,962,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,894,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f43…6bc0backed Yes | 0c | 1,499,224$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…36d1backed Yes | 0c | 1,357,693$4,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,630.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 1c | 955,969$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 0c | 892,128$4,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,153.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 0c | 829,680$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b5…090dbacked Yes | 0c | 799,686$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…b1fdbacked Yes | 0c | 743,152$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes | 1c | 521,186$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,399.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…6682backed Yes | 0c | 487,031$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…69adbacked Yes | 0c | 461,965$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 0c | 416,401$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Yes | 0c | 393,315$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8bf8backed Yes | 1c | 328,031$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…03b2backed Yes | 0c | 309,892$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…b676backed Yes | 0c | 283,703$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 0c | 283,211$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…2473backed Yes | 0c | 261,081$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed Yes | 1c | 256,181$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +148%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…f17fbacked Yes | 0c | 217,424$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…8876backed Yes | 1c | 206,039$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…9aadbacked Yes | 0c | 201,043$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…5557backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 188,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…5d74backed Yes | 0c | 164,390$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…afbbbacked Yes | 2c | 153,789$3,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,514.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…53f7backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 4c | 148,023$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…5be9backed Yes | 1c | 145,509$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…b4f4backed Yes | 1c | 130,545$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.57 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…cbd4backed Yes | 1c | 129,667$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…ab2bbacked Yes | 1c | 125,953$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 0c | 123,668$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed Yes | 3c | 122,451$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed Yes | 1c | 119,764$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.26 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Yes | 1c | 118,027$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 6c | 115,000$6,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,909.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…6762backed Yes | 0c | 114,940$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…03d5backed Yes | 1c | 113,217$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 32c | 109,208$34,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,953.03 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…0729backed Yes | 1c | 108,170$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Yes | 0c | 103,283$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Yes | 0c | 101,289$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…b69cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…9fe0backed Yes | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…96b6backed Yes | 1c | 97,502$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda81…ed2cbacked Yes | 0c | 89,476$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…1559backed Yes | 0c | 86,489$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 34c | 84,270$28,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,892.44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 12c | 81,740$10,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,180.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 0c | 81,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Yes | 0c | 80,182$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 5c | 79,496$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.37 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 36c | 78,344$28,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,522.59 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…b54fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,538$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 5c | 77,227$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.45 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 0c | 76,704$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…0544backed Yes | 0c | 76,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a10…1492backed Yes | 0c | 74,740$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…1545backed Yes | 3c | 74,451$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 0c | 74,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Yes | 10c | 73,517$7,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,719.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 1c | 72,156$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…2452backed Yes | 1c | 70,128$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Yes | 0c | 70,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…3421backed Yes | 0c | 69,940$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…3935backed Yes | 0c | 69,366$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…2560backed Yes | 1c | 67,625$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 18c | 66,250$11,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,719.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…043cbacked Yes | 0c | 66,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 0c | 63,250$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…cd8abacked Yes | 0c | 62,548$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Yes | 1c | 58,373$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 1c | 58,138$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 0c | 54,780$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.12 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed Yes | 0c | 54,595$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes | 1c | 53,039$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 4c | 52,864$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.09 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Yes | 1c | 52,604$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 11cpaid | +445.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b61…cf00backed Yes | 0c | 51,888$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…6f40backed Yes | 0c | 50,727$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…1680backed Yes | 0c | 50,248$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d1…aaf8backed Yes | 0c | 50,110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…99d8backed Yes | 0c | 50,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…3030backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4e…9774backed Yes | 1c | 48,999$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…dcdcbacked Yes | 1c | 48,774$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 48,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…a9bdbacked Yes | 0c | 48,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 47,201$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.57 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…0063backed Yes | 0c | 46,903$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…73e5backed Yes | 3c | 46,764$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 1c | 45,613$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…266fbacked Yes | 1c | 45,470$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…389ebacked Yes | 1c | 44,777$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 25c | 44,487$10,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,987.82 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 2c | 43,950$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.21 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…bb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 43,933$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 2c | 42,565$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.36 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 1c | 41,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…9cc0backed Yes | 1c | 40,867$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.