TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,034,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,205,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,034,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8a4…d478backed Yes9c32,368$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes0c30,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes3c29,277$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004139%16 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45c0…de12backed Yes2c23,976$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes8c21,251$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes35c18,056$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,277.392416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf684…18cfbacked Yes1c15,684$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a66…0a12backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c9,761$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.347663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes2c9,458$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.985712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed Yes2c9,347$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.642729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x920f…8e6abacked Yes1c8,816$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bba…e48dbacked Yes2c7,560$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Yes7c7,392$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes31c6,834$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.31520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes10c6,586$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.3619543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e5…e255backed No47c5,974$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,178.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+116.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4795…0fb0backed Yes9c5,785$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes10c5,540$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c6…b6f0backed Yes2c5,333$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…6ff2backed Yes2c5,190$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe12…93a1backed Yes11c5,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes11c5,000$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5652222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e1…0642backed Yes10c4,990$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9228…316abacked Yes2c4,988$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes9c4,806$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ef…8938backed Yes10c4,500$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c91…b2febacked Yes2c4,440$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.921030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9da5…61d5backed Yes2c4,328$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-85.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes4c4,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.275040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e9b…eff8backed Yes1c3,743$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…d0f5backed Yes7c3,488$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes42c3,452$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd996…ce40backed Yes1c3,435$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-67%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes2c3,381$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No67c3,276$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed No68c3,205$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked Yes1c3,096$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.151936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e6…89c1backed Yes16c3,061$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd23…b91dbacked Yes3c2,977$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No63c2,897$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.836031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes2c2,765$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.56616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfc…83ebbacked No73c2,734$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.751526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed71…8830backed Yes50c2,631$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…9794backed Yes8c2,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-74.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e90…19a8backed Yes6c2,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.580%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes2c2,475$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-38.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes13c2,385$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae42…cd65backed Yes38c2,303$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.071233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33b0…e5f9backed No49c2,266$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94f…6470backed Yes2c2,110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+59%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed Yes4c2,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.842035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed No63c2,000$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.753330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001850%9 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9b…0029backed Yes36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes30c1,999$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.75026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes3c1,987$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.59128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbe…c192backed Yes2c1,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes1c1,894$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68280%0 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c1,825$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2713424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes1c1,813$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187121.1%15 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No37c1,788$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.632548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes1c1,713$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes5c1,707$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3223841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cf1…b6f8backed Yes25c1,665$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fef…8a8fbacked No59c1,630$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.041650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7325…0574backed Yes6c1,603$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9328…ec52backed Yes1c1,538$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7403…0be2backed Yes52c1,504$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-77.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6503…cd7bbacked Yes7c1,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No69c1,453$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.027234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f8…b824backed Yes9c1,441$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd173…1667backed Yes7c1,400$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No77c1,344$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8311833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4289…6b52backed No60c1,331$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8421…37d7backed Yes19c1,326$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5819…21f2backed Yes2c1,290$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…a011backed Yes11c1,273$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0147…85d4backed Yes9c1,188$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.391241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d03…32c1backed Yes9c1,169$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5370%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes2c1,120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae6…02d5backed Yes7c1,101$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28aa…28b8backed Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54020%8 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628c…ab2bbacked Yes7c1,082$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d3…80edbacked Yes2c1,062$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab23…2053backed Yes2c1,059$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes1c1,046$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.613831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes8c1,035$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.87407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed No49c1,030$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.614641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…2111backed Yes7c1,011$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ed…dbc3backed Yes7c1,005$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c993.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb624…21a6backed Yes7c990$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.