Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0cbeaf95274ba019bbdb88c97bc3808c069691117657d884e2bcd8745c6621f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,034,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,205,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,034,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8a4…d478backed Yes | 9c | 32,368$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,764.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 3c | 29,277$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…de12backed Yes | 2c | 23,976$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…f044backed Yes | 8c | 21,251$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 35c | 18,056$6,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,277.39 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…18cfbacked Yes | 1c | 15,684$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…0a12backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 9,761$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.34 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 2c | 9,458$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 2c | 9,347$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920f…8e6abacked Yes | 1c | 8,816$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…e48dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,560$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 7c | 7,392$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes | 31c | 6,834$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 10c | 6,586$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.36 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…e255backed No | 47c | 5,974$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4795…0fb0backed Yes | 9c | 5,785$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes | 10c | 5,540$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…b6f0backed Yes | 2c | 5,333$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…6ff2backed Yes | 2c | 5,190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…93a1backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…0642backed Yes | 10c | 4,990$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…316abacked Yes | 2c | 4,988$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes | 9c | 4,806$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…8938backed Yes | 10c | 4,500$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b2febacked Yes | 2c | 4,440$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…61d5backed Yes | 2c | 4,328$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…eff8backed Yes | 1c | 3,743$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…d0f5backed Yes | 7c | 3,488$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes | 42c | 3,452$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…ce40backed Yes | 1c | 3,435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Yes | 2c | 3,381$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 67c | 3,276$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.04 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…dcd1backed No | 68c | 3,205$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,096$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…89c1backed Yes | 16c | 3,061$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…b91dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,977$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 63c | 2,897$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.83 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes | 2c | 2,765$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…83ebbacked No | 73c | 2,734$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed71…8830backed Yes | 50c | 2,631$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…19a8backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 2c | 2,475$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes | 13c | 2,385$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…cd65backed Yes | 38c | 2,303$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…e5f9backed No | 49c | 2,266$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…6470backed Yes | 2c | 2,110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…5753backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 30c | 1,999$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.7 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,987$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,894$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 1,825$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.27 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,813$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 37c | 1,788$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,713$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 5c | 1,707$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…b6f8backed Yes | 25c | 1,665$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 59c | 1,630$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…0574backed Yes | 6c | 1,603$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9328…ec52backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…0be2backed Yes | 52c | 1,504$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…cd7bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 69c | 1,453$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.02 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Yes | 9c | 1,441$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1667backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 1,344$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.83 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…6b52backed No | 60c | 1,331$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Yes | 19c | 1,326$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…21f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,290$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…a011backed Yes | 11c | 1,273$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…5d85backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…85d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,188$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…32c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,169$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae6…02d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,101$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…ab2bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,082$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…80edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,062$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,046$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 1,035$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 49c | 1,030$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.61 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…2111backed Yes | 7c | 1,011$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…dbc3backed Yes | 7c | 1,005$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 993.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…21a6backed Yes | 7c | 990$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.