Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c781724bfa815b391fe31e6e5604dba1a8f61f702205ef77a51a3edc53a119

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $578,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $519,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $578,790 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	0c	64,369$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.74	55	7.3%4 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes	1c	29,277$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed Yes	1c	22,040$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.3	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab23…2053backed Yes	0c	10,372$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.35	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes	5c	10,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.98	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes	15c	8,891$1,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,373.58	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e9b…eff8backed Yes	1c	8,885$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.74	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,447$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.55	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed Yes	1c	6,001$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.65	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes	1c	6,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d4f…e9bcbacked Yes	0c	5,670$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	2c	5,321$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd996…ce40backed Yes	0c	5,002$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes	4c	3,972$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b0…1c31backed Yes	3c	3,817$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7325…0574backed Yes	3c	3,567$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…7b0bbacked Yes	3c	3,489$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes	2c	3,449$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+106.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	3,090$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.17	110	7.3%8 W · 102 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540b…da3abacked Yes	5c	3,032$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.47	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes	1c	2,883$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Yes	1c	2,750$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes	2c	2,531$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+71.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb2…2825backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes	1c	2,363$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e40…1319backed Yes	3c	2,361$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes	1c	2,261$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes	2c	2,174$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28aa…28b8backed Yes	1c	2,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes	7c	2,000$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.31	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd173…1667backed Yes	5c	1,804$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a59…3a52backed Yes	2c	1,700$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes	2c	1,647$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.71	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,530$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x199e…ee64backed Yes	2c	1,502$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae42…cd65backed Yes	22c	1,500$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.98	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c3…4475backed Yes	5c	1,400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xab52…f50dbacked Yes	5c	1,306$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbccc…e33cbacked Yes	5c	1,306$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xea16…0e77backed Yes	5c	1,300$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9a…6711backed Yes	5c	1,300$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd067…70c4backed Yes	4c	1,300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27d1…8be4backed Yes	5c	1,300$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab5d…5342backed Yes	4c	1,300$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x683d…8278backed Yes	5c	1,300$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x095a…e369backed Yes	4c	1,284$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8ea3…4930backed Yes	4c	1,265$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6a…09e7backed Yes	1c	1,249$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…8b4abacked Yes	5c	1,204$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…4ff3backed Yes	5c	1,200$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4811…bc70backed Yes	1c	1,198$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0b…675abacked Yes	5c	1,183$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2485…27acbacked Yes	1c	1,177$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe736…6192backed Yes	5c	1,100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46e2…8713backed Yes	5c	1,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5979…e98cbacked Yes	4c	1,100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf258…19debacked Yes	5c	1,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x376c…b628backed Yes	4c	1,100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x728d…d6dcbacked Yes	5c	1,100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d2…3759backed Yes	5c	1,100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb0…ac5bbacked Yes	6c	1,074$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	2c	1,070$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	28cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc668…03ebbacked Yes	5c	1,045$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4b…e5f7backed Yes	5c	1,030$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51e1…cd94backed Yes	3c	1,022$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f8…b824backed Yes	12c	1,007$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x075a…fb98backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…1e90backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa133…b362backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8293…7216backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbac…83aebacked Yes	6c	999.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes	2c	945.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f77…b204backed Yes	5c	902.12$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07e0…ec38backed No	79c	884.93$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.84	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+41%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes	4c	712.56$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes	8c	696.05$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.93	238	41.2%98 W · 140 L	+25.1wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x384c…ad76backed Yes	6c	691.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes	5c	610.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed No	74c	543.9$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.9	12	91.7%11 W · 1 L	+3.6wins	+0.30per pick	61cpaid	+204.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No	78c	524.94$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.54	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08e5…e255backed No	74c	507.73$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.33	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	46cpaid	+116.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fb9…f3adbacked Yes	6c	507.69$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e5a…0042backed Yes	4c	499.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	15c	488.41$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.13	134	24.6%33 W · 101 L	-14.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7c8…f924backed Yes	6c	486.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e78…39ebbacked Yes	5c	469.39$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba8…44f3backed Yes	5c	464.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes	16c	444.7$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.44	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf55…1e4fbacked Yes	5c	438.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	7c	424.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked Yes	2c	406.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8638…c8e9backed Yes	14c	321.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes	4c	315.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7afb…ff15backed Yes	3c	314.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e14…1c6fbacked Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes	17c	299.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc628…9f33backed Yes	5c	292.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes	7c	274.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?this page
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event