Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14662889e3f5ad2a6e9d01cf00eb6e2d23e7cbc090370854df29a5631b430753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,678,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,937,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,678,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,845 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b35…53c5backed No | 50c | 316,402$156,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156,836.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked No | 44c | 246,438$108,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,299.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5a…51a1backed Yes | 77c | 192,273$148,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,222.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 46c | 151,513$69,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,810.05 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 5c | 131,519$6,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,793.25 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed No | 50c | 96,503$48,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48a…e843backed Yes | 44c | 80,000$35,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,599.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 62c | 71,442$44,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,288 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed Yes | 79c | 64,132$50,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,560.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 6c | 56,836$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,541.56 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 35c | 50,395$17,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,744.73 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed Yes | 55c | 46,213$25,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,970.26 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 62c | 41,017$25,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,755.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 50c | 40,272$20,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,086.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 54c | 40,000$21,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,410.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Yes | 52c | 37,231$19,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,039.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 24c | 37,217$8,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,406.31 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 39c | 36,681$14,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,158.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 71c | 32,720$23,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,638.45 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked No | 70c | 32,049$22,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,339.29 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 2c | 31,244$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.81 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked Yes | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 42c | 29,575$12,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,300.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 23c | 28,699$6,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,651.52 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed No | 54c | 28,648$15,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,327.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…8796backed No | 22c | 27,900$6,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked No | 46c | 27,660$12,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,808.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 72c | 26,262$18,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,357.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…91e1backed Yes | 69c | 25,366$17,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,748.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…8218backed Yes | 57c | 25,028$14,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,757.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed No | 11c | 24,952$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 48c | 24,158$11,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,649.31 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed No | 4c | 24,008$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.52 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…85aebacked Yes | 79c | 23,903$19,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,903.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3629…d4ffbacked No | 18c | 22,800$4,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed No | 46c | 22,700$10,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,442 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…6c8bbacked No | 25c | 20,129$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…220cbacked No | 12c | 20,098$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed Yes | 54c | 19,882$10,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,069.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +148%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 58c | 19,532$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,112.77 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes | 57c | 18,055$10,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,826.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…0efcbacked Yes | 55c | 18,034$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,033.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 50c | 17,701$8,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,924.87 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2642…845fbacked No | 29c | 17,492$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…18cfbacked Yes | 72c | 17,443$12,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,807.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…cb3cbacked Yes | 78c | 17,100$13,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…005dbacked No | 60c | 16,883$10,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,122.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Yes | 57c | 16,882$9,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,328.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 44c | 16,854$7,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,430.39 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e13…ef7bbacked No | 11c | 16,850$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…6123backed No | 61c | 16,596$10,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,096.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 49c | 16,000$7,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,913.9 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eea…ff59backed Yes | 49c | 15,950$7,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,198.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…3c94backed No | 35c | 15,481$5,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,366.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Yes | 57c | 15,458$8,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,718.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed No | 3c | 15,269$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 2c | 15,200$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…d360backed No | 26c | 15,086$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 67c | 15,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 75c | 14,826$11,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Yes | 40c | 14,770$5,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,901.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes | 57c | 14,530$8,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…f1c9backed Yes | 76c | 14,041$10,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…5ea8backed No | 64c | 13,989$9,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,004.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…26adbacked No | 43c | 13,959$5,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,989.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes | 34c | 13,912$4,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,156.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked No | 38c | 13,205$5,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,068.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…5404backed Yes | 38c | 13,133$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,183.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…534ebacked Yes | 54c | 12,865$6,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,966.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…de66backed No | 32c | 12,761$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,108.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e4a4backed Yes | 48c | 12,509$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,508.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 22c | 12,464$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 2c | 12,458$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…8536backed No | 68c | 12,202$8,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,276.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 37c | 12,182$4,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…f801backed No | 54c | 12,084$6,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,569.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…b8b6backed No | 66c | 11,941$7,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,904.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ce55backed Yes | 55c | 11,923$6,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,355.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 50c | 11,769$5,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,844.21 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 35c | 11,464$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.93 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 65c | 11,278$7,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed No | 1c | 11,171$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 11cpaid | +445.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 37c | 11,146$4,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,138.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…ea74backed No | 42c | 11,054$4,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed Yes | 53c | 10,900$5,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,133.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 34c | 10,747$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…2ca8backed No | 13c | 10,623$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 29c | 10,505$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.05 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Yes | 77c | 10,401$8,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4795…0fb0backed Yes | 49c | 10,258$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,258.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 72c | 10,118$7,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,278.97 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 0c | 10,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,700 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 48c | 10,000$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 24c | 9,999$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…c5b7backed Yes | 24c | 9,724$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,406.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…0c0cbacked Yes | 78c | 9,700$7,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…9550backed Yes | 78c | 9,600$7,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 55c | 9,477$5,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.