Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0936a676ff87bd445ea562fc9f79541b02586f7cab93c6515b24d5a83b87ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 16,891$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…5d85backed Yes | 1c | 14,262$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…f044backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9194backed Yes | 1c | 7,590$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…5753backed Yes | 1c | 7,089$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 2c | 6,993$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 0c | 6,025$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,807$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes | 3c | 4,754$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,418$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,384$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed Yes | 1c | 3,878$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 1c | 3,649$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 1c | 3,630$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 3,613$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540b…da3abacked Yes | 2c | 3,456$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,636$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,545$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes | 7c | 2,307$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…6eb6backed Yes | 2c | 2,024$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,017$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…09e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,772$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,665$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1667backed Yes | 3c | 1,596$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…51febacked Yes | 1c | 1,464$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…1319backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…9b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaede…e0acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…4ce7backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…7ba2backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…c8c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,261$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…7f77backed Yes | 3c | 1,236$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…1e19backed Yes | 2c | 1,202$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…2bc8backed Yes | 2c | 1,201$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1b…2174backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65d…25fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…6b06backed Yes | 3c | 1,196$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…3fb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…f547backed Yes | 2c | 1,144$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…55ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,138$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…d069backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6593…6e23backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…0e63backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…4c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…7598backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…eaa1backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…cdcabacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e78…51acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…571cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…c2f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…9bf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…aa4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…ee0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,093$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…ba74backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…349ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,083$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…7b4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3d…7c30backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…fd02backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d9…a2f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…7e0ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…4b78backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…ec6bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0042backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…651abacked Yes | 3c | 960$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…b2eabacked Yes | 3c | 950$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 655.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…fcd8backed Yes | 3c | 623$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 596.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…ceb1backed Yes | 2c | 563.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…1c6fbacked Yes | 2c | 556.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf55…1e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 544.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…1894backed Yes | 4c | 426.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…c8e9backed Yes | 6c | 402.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 4c | 331.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked Yes | 5c | 279.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 5c | 236.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…6067backed Yes | 11c | 180.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 116.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.