TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$361,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c16,891$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.89560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes1c14,262$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd417…9194backed Yes1c7,590$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed Yes1c7,089$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.62035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes2c6,993$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204139%16 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes0c6,025$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157121.1%15 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,807$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.877663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes3c4,754$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes0c4,418$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75280%0 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes3c4,384$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab23…2053backed Yes1c3,878$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes1c3,649$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.631127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-38.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes1c3,630$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.575040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes0c3,613$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540b…da3abacked Yes2c3,456$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes0c2,636$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes0c2,545$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-85.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes7c2,307$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes1c2,229$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a4…6eb6backed Yes2c2,024$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c2,017$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.691107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6a…09e7backed Yes1c1,772$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes3c1,665$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd173…1667backed Yes3c1,596$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb34…51febacked Yes1c1,464$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e40…1319backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0cd…9b6fbacked Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaede…e0acbacked Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6784…4ce7backed Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afa…7ba2backed Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad59…c8c4backed Yes3c1,261$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4c…7f77backed Yes3c1,236$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6497…1e19backed Yes2c1,202$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x093d…2bc8backed Yes2c1,201$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1b…2174backed Yes3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65d…25fabacked Yes3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea6…6b06backed Yes3c1,196$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb3…3fb4backed Yes2c1,172$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9a…f547backed Yes2c1,144$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…55ccbacked Yes2c1,140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8421…37d7backed Yes10c1,138$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.01160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd08d…d069backed Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6593…6e23backed Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8789…0e63backed Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…4c72backed Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5be…7598backed Yes2c1,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7809…eaa1backed Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…cdcabacked Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e78…51acbacked Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e43…571cbacked Yes3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e6…c2f8backed Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53d…9bf0backed Yes2c1,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ac…aa4bbacked Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c3…ee0cbacked Yes3c1,093$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f22…ba74backed Yes2c1,093$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0a…349ebacked Yes3c1,083$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f85…7b4bbacked Yes3c1,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3d…7c30backed Yes3c1,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0cb…fd02backed Yes3c1,050$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d9…a2f8backed Yes3c1,050$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4f…7e0ebacked Yes2c1,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…4b78backed Yes2c1,050$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes1c1,020$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3b…ec6bbacked Yes3c1,019$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes2c1,002$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5a…0042backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…651abacked Yes3c960$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf34…b2eabacked Yes3c950$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c655.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e6…fcd8backed Yes3c623$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c596.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf092…ceb1backed Yes2c563.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e14…1c6fbacked Yes2c556.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf55…1e4fbacked Yes2c544.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b2…1894backed Yes4c426.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8638…c8e9backed Yes6c402.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes4c331.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3814732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ac1…ecfabacked Yes5c279.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes5c236.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.475623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1e…6067backed Yes11c180.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes11c116.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.697334.2%25 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes15c115$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.246320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No58c34.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5225422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.