Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b98180967604b0955c26d43c6ab479d02b734136340fc091c9edcc677d280b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…5d85backed Yes | 1c | 17,573$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,676$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb2…2825backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…283abacked Yes | 1c | 7,610$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…ebd7backed Yes | 1c | 6,180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…f044backed Yes | 1c | 6,093$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…33dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,020$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed Yes | 0c | 5,692$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf314…b7e1backed Yes | 2c | 5,095$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…e7d7backed Yes | 2c | 5,095$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…1319backed Yes | 1c | 5,045$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,607$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 2c | 4,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,827$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,785$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 1c | 3,466$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 1c | 2,552$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,273$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…1c6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,912$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes | 7c | 1,776$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,421$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cd94backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,299$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…9b16backed Yes | 2c | 1,244$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…23c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…c4a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0042backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…dd48backed Yes | 2c | 903$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…c8e9backed Yes | 4c | 821.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…a66dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…f2cebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 377.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…6067backed Yes | 8c | 236.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 66c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.