Token Launches · resolved market
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4df5370b4c0d14985f3ffaf655cea5f371d1e38dc1835a97e22ea04d91ade4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,869,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,796,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,869,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 563 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed Yes | 0c | 74,568$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 70,564$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.2 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 6c | 64,719$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,035.78 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eea…ff59backed Yes | 8c | 42,899$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…30d9backed Yes | 1c | 35,080$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes | 5c | 30,323$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 8c | 26,668$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 23c | 26,325$6,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,141.64 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 9c | 24,746$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 22,539$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4795…0fb0backed Yes | 19c | 21,177$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 10c | 19,692$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.66 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 19,048$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Yes | 29c | 15,074$4,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,357.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…981dbacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 8c | 14,674$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…de12backed Yes | 10c | 14,400$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…f044backed Yes | 33c | 13,500$4,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,424.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 0c | 13,207$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 44c | 12,921$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.65 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…5f99backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 65c | 11,811$7,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,101.81 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…93a1backed Yes | 39c | 11,719$4,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,615.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…d017backed Yes | 0c | 11,575$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…f603backed Yes | 7c | 11,529$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 2c | 11,381$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.03 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…36d1backed Yes | 1c | 11,195$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…18cfbacked Yes | 12c | 11,147$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 10,898$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf923…eab1backed Yes | 2c | 10,641$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 75c | 9,885$7,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.75 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 79c | 9,227$7,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.95 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…51aabacked Yes | 2c | 8,644$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 63c | 8,605$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,214.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…f1bdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,771$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 17c | 7,751$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.99 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…30f3backed Yes | 1c | 7,610$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 2c | 7,071$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,953$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 31c | 6,868$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 12c | 6,780$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.18 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…da1ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,727$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…06acbacked Yes | 0c | 6,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 5,998$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…c650backed Yes | 1c | 5,906$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dc…011dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,748$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 5,602$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…5165backed Yes | 1c | 5,384$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed Yes | 35c | 5,332$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…5753backed Yes | 19c | 5,008$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…59b7backed Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…b6f0backed Yes | 8c | 4,990$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…011abacked No | 58c | 4,843$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,699$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…a66fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,641$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 76c | 4,450$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…0729backed Yes | 4c | 4,295$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 20c | 4,238$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 30c | 4,056$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.03 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…b4e7backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed Yes | 11c | 3,834$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 60c | 3,784$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.48 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…468bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,335$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 60c | 3,334$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.26 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…7dcebacked No | 60c | 3,278$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +298.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…8b3fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,156$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…aa88backed Yes | 1c | 3,047$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,019$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f1…2fc2backed No | 61c | 2,975$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 11c | 2,962$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.68 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…de87backed No | 68c | 2,951$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…7b0bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,949$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 64c | 2,858$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.43 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,748$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…b1f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,677$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…8eccbacked Yes | 3c | 2,666$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,617$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 50c | 2,572$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…5df9backed Yes | 5c | 2,363$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…688fbacked No | 64c | 2,300$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 69c | 2,289$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed Yes | 9c | 2,280$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 71c | 2,230$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 65c | 2,178$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 59c | 2,173$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.9 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 69c | 2,131$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.71 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…32c1backed Yes | 14c | 2,130$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…89c1backed Yes | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…b4f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…0184backed Yes | 1c | 2,081$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…df60backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?this page
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.