Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9176fae5ec5340e7ecf584d01fd8ba3c164bd8de6abf97cb13d8f0c9571e24c0

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,591,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,645,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,591,810 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 683 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	2c	67,158$1,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,354.63	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes	19c	54,904$10,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,435.06	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes	13c	49,792$6,562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,561.94	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed Yes	8c	35,054$2,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,894.39	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfa…9eb9backed Yes	17c	24,345$4,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,138.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes	64c	23,161$14,823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,823.16	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes	31c	21,554$6,699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,699.23	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-6.2wins	-0.20per pick	39cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3eea…ff59backed Yes	6c	19,038$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.39	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…38d5backed Yes	0c	18,287$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed Yes	22c	17,815$3,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,978.29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-79%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Yes	8c	16,304$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,280.06	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked No	67c	16,000$10,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,319.99	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	-24%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	32c	15,936$5,079 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,857	178	59.6%106 W · 72 L	+18.3wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+21%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No	70c	15,000$10,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,538.8	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+4.6wins	+0.20per pick	41cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes	20c	13,565$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	0c	13,300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	55	7.3%4 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,272$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	2c	11,980$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.45	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+164.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7b5…c605backed Yes	19c	10,400$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	10,239$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.16	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Yes	14c	10,000$1,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked No	74c	10,000$7,448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,552	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes	25c	10,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,499.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…657fbacked Yes	58c	9,195$5,304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,303.72	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+200.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes	3c	8,861$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.18	57	12.3%7 W · 50 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes	6c	8,785$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf96c…9e96backed Yes	4c	7,819$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.49	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes	30c	7,783$2,335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,334.84	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed Yes	8c	7,580$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.15	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	+8.0wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcc9…59b7backed Yes	49c	7,479$3,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,637.42	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked Yes	22c	7,055$1,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,577.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a4…d478backed Yes	23c	6,777$1,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,578.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No	35c	6,669$2,314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,355	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4f…e9bcbacked Yes	4c	6,380$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No	46c	6,100$2,823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,277.12	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.8wins	+0.22per pick	48cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed No	79c	6,071$4,789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,281.16	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae42…cd65backed Yes	18c	5,990$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.71	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c0…de12backed Yes	6c	5,756$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.57	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes	3c	5,678$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.29	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…b9c0backed Yes	16c	5,654$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes	67c	5,642$3,760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,759.92	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb94f…6470backed Yes	1c	5,556$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+59%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes	3c	5,555$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9228…316abacked Yes	4c	5,410$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b18…6a6abacked Yes	13c	5,367$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.85	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	5,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	171	2.9%5 W · 166 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed Yes	14c	5,004$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.74	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	23c	5,000$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,169.99	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6c…69b7backed Yes	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.99	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	10c	4,675$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.23	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	35c	4,597$1,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,988.4	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+6.3wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes	26c	4,529$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c6…b6f0backed Yes	5c	4,129$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.09	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd996…ce40backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2473…859dbacked No	44c	3,984$1,758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,226.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ae…82aabacked No	53c	3,964$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,863.77	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No	70c	3,930$2,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,189.56	150	41.3%62 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x162b…2b8cbacked Yes	47c	3,893$1,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,829.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No	55c	3,749$2,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,699.14	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	+11.4wins	+0.20per pick	37cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4827…6bb1backed No	79c	3,681$2,908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.01	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	62cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbe…c192backed Yes	3c	3,650$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0d9…7797backed Yes	17c	3,562$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No	36c	3,451$1,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,208.75	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8421…37d7backed Yes	30c	3,434$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.07	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-3.6wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41d3…80edbacked Yes	6c	3,375$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe52…3ea6backed Yes	24c	3,305$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8434…55fcbacked No	44c	3,300$1,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,839	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes	50c	3,280$1,641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,641.4	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bba…e48dbacked Yes	5c	3,038$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b02…caa6backed Yes	6c	3,000$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.12	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No	36c	3,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,920	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x621d…5447backed No	77c	3,000$2,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	48cpaid	+60%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1895…759fbacked Yes	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-82%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x628c…ab2bbacked Yes	13c	3,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…6ff2backed Yes	4c	3,000$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e90…19a8backed Yes	8c	2,900$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes	8c	2,697$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.12	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+106.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…d0f5backed Yes	23c	2,671$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No	79c	2,633$2,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.02	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes	9c	2,590$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.69	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d03…32c1backed Yes	23c	2,478$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.55	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No	73c	2,450$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650.36	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+7.5wins	+0.14per pick	25cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a9a…1f92backed Yes	18c	2,401$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	16cpaid	+284.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e46…6a93backed Yes	18c	2,309$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.62	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	16cpaid	+284.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes	3c	2,283$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	6c	2,281$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.91	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+112.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No	33c	2,233$747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,486.41	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d7f…3775backed No	46c	2,229$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,206.46	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes	14c	2,124$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.37	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+38%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes	5c	2,111$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…1528backed Yes	16c	2,089$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.51	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed No	36c	2,083$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,333.33	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+112.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf8…6123backed No	52c	2,077$1,089 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$987.8	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa98d…3560backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes	10c	2,000$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.42	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Yes	66c	1,967$1,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301.6	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	64cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb31…9e68backed Yes	5c	1,882$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed No	36c	1,867$679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.55	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa38…bdfabacked Yes	8c	1,808$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.53	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f76…e8dcbacked Yes	28c	1,778$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?this page
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Yes won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?No won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event