TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Spread: Central Michigan (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Michiganof Central Michigan, Kent State Golden Flashes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,065,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,066,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,065,231 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3657…6b14backed Kent State Golden Flashes53c748,434$400,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399,999.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Central Michigan47c300,000$141,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159,0004163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Central Michigan45c80,032$35,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,217.839750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Central Michigan46c70,521$32,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,995.842,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Central Michigan47c61,587$28,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,717.158549.4%42 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Central Michigan46c47,286$21,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,684.616832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Central Michigan47c45,050$21,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,876.4693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Kent State Golden Flashes56c39,333$22,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,026.4812055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Central Michigan46c31,110$14,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,954.957853.8%42 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Central Michigan46c30,000$13,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,1008948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Central Michigan47c25,215$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,414.7858850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Central Michigan44c17,905$7,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,026.81154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Central Michigan47c17,774$8,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,441.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Central Michigan46c17,000$7,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,179.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Central Michigan44c13,065$5,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,316.183641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Central Michigan46c11,895$5,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,384.6386243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Central Michigan47c10,982$5,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,771.4321348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Central Michigan46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4003658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Central Michigan45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5007944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Central Michigan47c7,993$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.016947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Kent State Golden Flashes55c7,632$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200.631258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c5,600$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0241457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7003148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Kent State Golden Flashes56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Kent State Golden Flashes52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60029055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Central Michigan47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1202259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Central Michigan46c3,700$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99838546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Kent State Golden Flashes54c3,232$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7552951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Central Michigan46c3,200$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.117837.6%67 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Central Michigan48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5604847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-79.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c2,611$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3439…4f64backed Central Michigan44c2,255$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Central Michigan46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.919053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Central Michigan46c2,131$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.1852449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c2,117$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1431643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Central Michigan47c1,911$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.64825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0931…c034backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Central Michigan46c1,186$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.2949253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa088…3d07backed Central Michigan47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Central Michigan47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.831050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Central Michigan47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Central Michigan47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Central Michigan44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Central Michigan47c953.14$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.0654243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Central Michigan47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.061250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Central Michigan47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.066650%33 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410b…5c3cbacked Kent State Golden Flashes53c801.45$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Central Michigan46c761$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.9419051.6%98 W · 92 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Central Michigan47c752$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.2821644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c720$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.047664.5%49 W · 27 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Central Michigan46c715$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.4165945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Central Michigan50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35010445.2%47 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9389…b332backed Kent State Golden Flashes53c700$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c655.1$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c535$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.449457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Kent State Golden Flashes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Central Michigan46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7830253%160 W · 142 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Central Michigan45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.334551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Central Michigan47c313$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.892657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1719947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Central Michigan48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c291.6$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.783066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ad…2001backed Central Michigan46c280.84$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…559abacked Kent State Golden Flashes56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Central Michigan47c259.77$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d6…532cbacked Kent State Golden Flashes54c234$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked Central Michigan46c215.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Central Michigan46c214.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9510340.8%42 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Central Michigan48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.213253.8%71 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae2…f9adbacked Central Michigan46c205.51$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ca6…0d08backed Kent State Golden Flashes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Kent State Golden Flashes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Kent State Golden Flashes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Central Michigan47c191.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.491844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e8…fdd3backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b7…6c89backed Kent State Golden Flashes55c182.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c09…a69fbacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…eddbbacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Kent State Golden Flashes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002528%7 W · 18 L-6.5wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-50%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Central Michigan44c175$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987553.3%40 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b3…67cdbacked Central Michigan47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Central Michigan47c149.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4813453%71 W · 63 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe129…f8e4backed Kent State Golden Flashes53c131.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-73.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Central Michigan47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.668868.2%60 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Central Michigan46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.88142%34 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d1…8437backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c117.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Central Michigan48c114.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ff…40b4backed Kent State Golden Flashes53c113.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x970d…0651backed Central Michigan47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Kent State Golden Flashes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554641.3%19 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1004…8f56backed Kent State Golden Flashes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…a24abacked Kent State Golden Flashes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Kent State Golden Flashes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412755.9%71 W · 56 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414055%77 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.