TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,105,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,320,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,105,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,010 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94a4…6356backed No43c250,000$107,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,499.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes61c163,456$99,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,801.684650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes53c122,651$65,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,342.511330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No26c111,276$28,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,691.851540%6 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No5c100,347$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.195111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b7…b85cbacked No3c90,782$2,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes63c66,877$42,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,497.321233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed No0c63,073$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1247…c139backed No2c61,432$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.09450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+73.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No2c59,880$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes64c56,609$35,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,629.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes57c50,000$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,5003336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No9c49,373$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.731118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No2c42,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes60c41,919$25,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,744.445545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No0c41,055$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.292623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes79c40,857$32,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,778.692737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c40,539$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06a…f31fbacked No41c37,719$15,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,576.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes58c36,164$20,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,264.735251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed No16c35,069$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes57c35,000$19,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0504729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No40c32,191$12,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,944.1915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b25…830abacked No3c30,994$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes70c30,219$21,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,196.643046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes68c27,698$18,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,891.085738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4180…2a4bbacked No10c27,253$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6c…e358backed No45c26,958$12,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,006.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+87.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No33c25,328$8,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,477.431735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes57c25,000$14,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,7503737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No40c24,957$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,004.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No38c23,942$9,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,055.595328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c21,358$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.71611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No1c21,273$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec0…8336backed No3c21,227$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed No41c21,165$8,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,665.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed No11c21,000$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f32…b501backed No1c20,690$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed No2c20,139$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed No31c19,374$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No5c18,324$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No36c18,066$6,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,560.332638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No27c18,008$4,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes76c17,068$12,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.371353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed No0c15,441$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.46616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-79%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes64c15,438$9,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,517.313145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x353c…2af5backed No46c15,223$6,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,981.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes58c15,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No8c13,856$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.1750%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes63c13,783$8,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.571233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No37c13,625$5,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,031.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f2…a919backed No26c13,356$3,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,534.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9c…73bebacked No1c13,319$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No2c11,822$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd6…16f8backed No2c11,687$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae1…242abacked No0c11,548$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No11c11,278$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.545129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No14c11,000$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes75c10,975$8,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.514242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4c…16f8backed No1c10,916$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3b…24babacked No36c10,913$3,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,894.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes63c10,718$6,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.851030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes78c10,502$8,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.75742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No16c10,462$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.58650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be7…513cbacked No44c10,425$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No0c10,316$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes66c10,180$6,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.62955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+110.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No43c10,129$4,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.013630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed No39c9,848$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes69c9,801$6,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.235044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes58c9,555$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No1c9,500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.634330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes72c9,259$6,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.373345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes59c9,007$5,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,669.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No1c9,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Yes78c8,966$7,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e7…9c38backed No4c8,700$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes55c8,586$4,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,863.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed No4c8,574$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…4973backed No43c8,470$3,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,641.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No39c8,222$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes63c7,598$4,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6441…139ebacked No30c7,523$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No42c7,474$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.543850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No22c7,407$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.1812440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes64c7,131$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.754744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed No48c7,089$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes72c7,000$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.47666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes58c6,892$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.13043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72e1…7d89backed No36c6,813$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed No33c6,807$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No52c6,778$3,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.0519643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0be…492fbacked No24c6,404$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No10c6,112$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No46c5,887$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.2134333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes59c5,800$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.862330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ca…e680backed No35c5,714$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No58c5,688$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.914037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.