TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,745,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,833,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,745,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Magic43c818,394$350,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468,393.945952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Magic39c561,903$221,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340,777.1615443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pistons59c375,000$220,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220,878.0120253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Pistons61c374,604$228,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228,508.362665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic40c184,645$73,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,786.781,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons60c179,575$106,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,865.022,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons50c134,701$67,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,049.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons60c117,942$70,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,482.152,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pistons56c110,000$61,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,40096447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons58c101,687$59,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,486.272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Pistons60c85,495$51,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,695.877869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic40c70,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,00017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Magic38c63,027$24,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,995.261,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Magic63c58,816$37,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,776.341346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Pistons57c53,591$30,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,740.564456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons41c50,727$20,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,646.481,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pistons58c50,114$29,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,245.8751350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons62c49,161$30,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,350.044,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Pistons38c38,162$14,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,469.626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Magic39c35,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,399.9219351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca12…c3d2backed Pistons60c31,413$18,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,847.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pistons59c28,012$16,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,580.3337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Pistons38c27,437$10,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,477.761435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic42c26,561$11,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,426.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pistons57c25,589$14,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,570.531,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pistons15c23,830$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.5570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff6f…0141backed Pistons78c23,559$18,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,383.931060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic41c22,313$9,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,064.5774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic40c21,214$8,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,676.8772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Magic42c20,078$8,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,620.8648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pistons60c20,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Pistons60c19,800$11,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,86721450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Magic41c19,800$8,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,66917861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb50d…81debacked Magic40c18,750$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2502259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons46c16,567$7,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.121,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Pistons57c15,667$8,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,895.77448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pistons41c15,136$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,212.912,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Pistons56c15,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Pistons58c14,443$8,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,376.9410235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Pistons62c13,640$8,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,429.6511558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Magic41c12,100$4,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,13923135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons50c11,924$5,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,968.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pistons60c11,667$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Pistons60c11,308$6,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,731.1644648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Magic44c11,056$4,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,200.2316749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic42c10,637$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,177.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic42c10,259$4,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,966.413,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pistons58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Pistons60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pistons6c10,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Magic66c8,545$5,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.3219388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Pistons60c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pistons59c8,231$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,897.0947751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Pistons60c8,000$4,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,792.2639349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pistons57c7,749$4,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,405.351,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Magic44c7,578$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.4685344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a59…770cbacked Pistons68c7,555$5,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,135.216665.2%43 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Magic38c7,521$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.719849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pistons35c7,426$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.0381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…278fbacked Pistons60c7,243$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Pistons60c7,200$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3207468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Magic41c7,000$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,145.5411649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pistons58c6,943$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.8866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…7954backed Pistons59c6,500$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,834.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons55c6,169$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.13,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Pistons54c6,074$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,306.8422051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188f…c19dbacked Magic42c6,071$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.431070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Magic41c5,876$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489.9448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Pistons53c5,600$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96822243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e3…81f7backed Pistons63c5,328$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.384847.9%23 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic39c5,265$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,211.62,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0630…d067backed Magic39c5,083$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Magic42c5,033$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.338846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Pistons30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Magic38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Pistons29c4,900$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.1711251.8%58 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Magic41c4,879$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.611741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Magic42c4,762$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.97745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Magic39c4,500$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.3578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pistons32c4,297$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.011,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Magic40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons16c3,755$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.371,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Pistons58c3,719$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.966636.4%24 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Pistons12c3,644$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.343231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Magic45c3,635$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9857258.3%42 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Pistons55c3,630$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.399953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Pistons59c3,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic40c3,345$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.673,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Pistons66c3,311$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.8873649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Pistons43c3,291$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.3222846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Pistons59c3,263$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92536943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc13f…ca64backed Pistons26c3,145$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.3111261.6%69 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pistons60c3,045$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.9295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Pistons60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Pistons58c3,000$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7463847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Pistons59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7709141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5064…3ba3backed Magic40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf67…eee6backed Pistons60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005457.4%31 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Pistons59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77048347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Pistons36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0805541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.