NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4977ec09af3d071fb478454b1d74d9f681fcc3ce8af374b13aaafbac0a774c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,799.99 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons | 54c | 13,473$7,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,264.14 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Pistons | 55c | 12,129$6,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,670.72 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked Pistons | 54c | 11,734$6,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,336.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Pistons | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0d41backed Magic | 47c | 10,930$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,789.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic | 46c | 8,074$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,359.78 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 3,666$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 53c | 2,410$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.29 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Magic | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.98 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 48c | 1,889$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.15 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Pistons | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…3de0backed Pistons | 55c | 1,831$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Pistons | 55c | 1,227$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 1,191$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.37 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 46c | 1,118$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…1552backed Magic | 47c | 1,015$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Magic | 47c | 996.88$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.88 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Pistons | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Magic | 52c | 795.69$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Pistons | 51c | 776.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pistons | 54c | 642.59$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Pistons | 54c | 535$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.9 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Pistons | 54c | 518.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pistons | 53c | 486.1$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pistons | 52c | 381$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Pistons | 54c | 315$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Pistons | 51c | 238.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Magic | 48c | 238.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Pistons | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pistons | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 48c | 163.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 48c | 102.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pistons | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Pistons | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Magic | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Pistons | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Pistons | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…f8c9backed Pistons | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Pistons | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Pistons | 54c | 61.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Magic | 46c | 55.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pistons | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Pistons | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Pistons | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pistons | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Pistons | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…a6afbacked Pistons | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)this page
- Magic vs. PistonsMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.