NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb265fec336d65a271ecead656cc784a5ff637fa35882d0154c8d422b67876b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb50d…81debacked Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,367$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 48c | 626.95$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.01 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Over | 52c | 503.29$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 484.38$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 418$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 24c | 409.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 157.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 56c | 157.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 49c | 112.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 48c | 62.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Over | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 56.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 49c | 54.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…4156backed Over | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Over | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Over | 48c | 21.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- Magic vs. PistonsMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.