NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34dfed98d7ec65bd8bdfb74d507252283ea9660f0a021825df34d8faaf27993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Pistons | 45c | 31,110$13,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,999.44 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,250 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 54c | 8,978$4,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pistons | 47c | 1,980$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.7 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Magic | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pistons | 45c | 1,001$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.27 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 44c | 979.42$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Magic | 50c | 821.29$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.65 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 50c | 566.67$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.17 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Pistons | 46c | 429.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.94 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Pistons | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 45c | 338$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Pistons | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Magic | 61c | 269.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 44c | 112.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Pistons | 45c | 106.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pistons | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Magic | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons | 49c | 97.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Magic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Pistons | 44c | 90.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Magic | 76c | 71.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons | 28c | 42.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Magic | 55c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 54c | 35.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Magic | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Magic | 57c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…c93ebacked Pistons | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Magic | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- Magic vs. PistonsMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.