TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,790,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,844,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,790,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 677 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Raptors78c97,057$76,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,027.517869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Hornets25c79,142$19,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,693.034742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Hornets25c60,145$15,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,995.544544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets27c48,986$13,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,883.451,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hornets26c48,837$12,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,139.391,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Hornets26c30,400$7,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,495.9847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Raptors74c30,000$22,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,20017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hornets25c30,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.8435235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets25c28,914$7,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,815.574748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Raptors1c27,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hornets24c25,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets41c24,809$10,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,611.025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets24c22,197$5,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,787.642,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e47…c088backed Raptors75c20,681$15,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,510.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Raptors75c20,400$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,30011741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…57b3backed Hornets22c20,013$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,514.36825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Hornets26c20,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,80023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4297…ea39backed Hornets25c20,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Raptors74c20,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,8003551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Raptors45c18,822$8,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,390.0226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Hornets23c17,988$4,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,860.6747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hornets10c17,360$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,602.381,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Hornets19c17,327$3,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,1097745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Hornets21c16,719$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,252.441435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets14c13,166$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,305.613,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hornets27c12,391$3,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,045.4537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets24c9,978$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,548.193,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Raptors74c9,679$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,200.077259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Hornets26c9,423$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,973.085947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Hornets14c9,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,77012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x390a…1328backed Hornets11c9,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,009.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+77.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors75c8,888$6,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,632.6776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hornets26c8,808$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.2720253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Raptors75c8,748$6,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,560.7843051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Raptors74c8,108$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002580%20 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Raptors80c8,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef72…5295backed Hornets20c7,813$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,237.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Hornets15c7,785$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,616.9748046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors64c7,540$4,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.934,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Raptors74c7,383$5,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,445.2710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets14c6,838$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Raptors12c6,791$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.193647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Hornets60c6,707$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.485139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8867…4bb7backed Raptors76c6,700$5,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,091.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Raptors75c6,568$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,95015855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Hornets24c6,357$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,842.8335651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets37c6,080$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,826.923,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hornets25c5,843$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.5339349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Raptors75c5,750$4,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,327.56659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Raptors1c5,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Raptors76c5,293$4,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,041.448957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Raptors80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Raptors74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7005850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hornets20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.9837930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Hornets24c5,000$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,824.9710041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors73c4,691$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,445.041,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raptors75c4,555$3,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.2576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets24c4,150$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1541,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…c851backed Raptors68c4,063$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.923850%19 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Raptors76c4,026$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.1944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Raptors75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf607…6f46backed Raptors75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Hornets25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Hornets12c4,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Hornets34c3,946$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.197353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d20…a976backed Raptors75c3,817$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.1114248.6%69 W · 73 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors79c3,691$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.82,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Raptors76c3,615$2,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.3923348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raptors52c3,433$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.4481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Hornets25c3,276$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.0948132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efe…1c2ebacked Raptors75c3,012$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets25c3,000$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Hornets20c2,999$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.497731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets25c2,976$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Raptors25c2,889$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.0813464.2%86 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Raptors75c2,668$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.7747856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hornets18c2,592$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.441,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Hornets14c2,557$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.8348739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Raptors79c2,526$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.567957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets25c2,473$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.989,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7a…d80abacked Hornets22c2,273$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.731250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a9f…ff39backed Hornets24c2,188$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.171070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raptors61c2,131$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.521,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd781…92a0backed Hornets29c2,079$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.994436.4%16 W · 28 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2366…6fe9backed Raptors6c2,002$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Raptors76c2,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…38f0backed Hornets15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Hornets24c2,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.9818239%71 W · 111 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Hornets23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.966636.4%24 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Hornets23c1,898$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.299851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a9…cb8bbacked Hornets25c1,800$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick34cpaid+117.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Hornets24c1,780$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.7811354%61 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hornets23c1,739$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.1372450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hornets25c1,564$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.622,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Raptors78c1,517$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18336943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hornets22c1,502$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.7896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Raptors77c1,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Raptors73c1,500$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09519441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Raptors74c1,456$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.3511649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hornets22c1,407$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.021,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.