NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ea3520c6e2296b7c226628ea7ae2fbe94dfd53e030b800f69a81cb34b5764c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 49c | 5,809$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 51c | 5,676$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hornets | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Hornets | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…512fbacked Raptors | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 53c | 391.69$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Hornets | 62c | 358.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 38c | 293.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Raptors | 44c | 267$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Raptors | 46c | 267$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 37c | 190.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…c0cfbacked Hornets | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 52c | 158.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…0121backed Raptors | 48c | 158.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Raptors | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Hornets | 57c | 117.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Hornets | 58c | 115.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Hornets | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 53c | 90.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Hornets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Hornets | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Hornets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Hornets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…1817backed Raptors | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Hornets | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Hornets | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.