NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x247ef67c3994795895f4ff650d8d59188897eb43b536d6337e08a6e0b5146851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 57c | 17,974$10,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,713.28 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 9,907$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,517.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 4,400$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4843backed Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,331$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.37 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…81debacked Under | 51c | 3,331$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 2,600$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Under | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…92f4backed Over | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…e5b3backed Over | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…f1f6backed Under | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Under | 59c | 1,800$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Over | 41c | 1,800$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,776$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 46c | 1,457$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 49c | 1,433$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 1,124$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.32 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Over | 47c | 1,071$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.38 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 937$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.54 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 564$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 480$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Over | 42c | 423.38$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 413.77$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 280 | 63.6%178 W · 102 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…87fcbacked Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 198.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a6…237fbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 50c | 143.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 52c | 105.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Under | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 48c | 77.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Over | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Under | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 26.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.