TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over49c1,145$562 inLost-$561.52,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c882.33$441 inWon+$441.459,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c403$177 inWon+$226.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over53c389.87$207 inLost-$207.412,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under53c218$116 inWon+$102.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Over60c108$65 inLost-$64.84757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over49c108$53 inLost-$52.923,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under48c100$48 inWon+$5265855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.348852.3%46 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over52c75$39 inLost-$3936248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Under46c66.39$31 inWon+$35.68652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Under48c25$12 inWon+$1334246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over52c25$13 inLost-$131,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f9…15eebacked Over55c20$11 inLost-$111872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.