NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf4951761808da4d3171ad0f4c75fd9f8bd1463746a735fdd69377c64d873b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 50c | 15,213$7,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,606.59 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 9,800$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,805$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 55c | 4,400$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 49c | 4,093$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.33 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 11c | 3,564$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.36 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 45c | 3,185$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.25 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 2,110$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.8 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9dcabacked Under | 59c | 1,800$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Over | 41c | 1,800$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,451$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 1,361$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.41 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 1,219$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.97 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Under | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 45c | 1,090$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.55 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…0b05backed Under | 63c | 700$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 57c | 467.21$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 418.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 50c | 402.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Under | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 256.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…29acbacked Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 45c | 50.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.