NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ca39a7936f6d1e231eefa79de0b2145576b5a0ec2eef009edb2f8da5838e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors | 45c | 199,735$89,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,880.94 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 55c | 161,551$88,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,712.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Hornets | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 55c | 9,868$5,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,440.57 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Hornets | 57c | 6,459$3,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.25 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Raptors | 47c | 5,619$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,641.92 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Hornets | 53c | 5,312$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.48 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 54c | 4,687$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.37 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Raptors | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Hornets | 53c | 3,627$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.6 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 51c | 3,214$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets | 49c | 3,183$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.56 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 47c | 3,126$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Hornets | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.27 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 54c | 2,302$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5089backed Raptors | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Raptors | 50c | 1,980$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 45c | 1,353$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…81debacked Hornets | 49c | 1,331$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Raptors | 49c | 1,038$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.58 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Raptors | 53c | 1,006$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.49 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…62bbbacked Hornets | 49c | 795.92$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Hornets | 69c | 776.22$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 32c | 678.14$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 51c | 588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 55c | 577.63$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Raptors | 43c | 520.69$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 50c | 474.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Raptors | 52c | 386.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Raptors | 60c | 236.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 45c | 215.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…74ccbacked Hornets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Raptors | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Hornets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Raptors | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Raptors | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hornets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Hornets | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hornets | 48c | 177.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…a988backed Raptors | 48c | 167$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Hornets | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 49c | 143.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Hornets | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Raptors | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Hornets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Hornets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcc…bb85backed Hornets | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Hornets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Hornets | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Hornets | 53c | 95.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Raptors | 48c | 92.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…754abacked Hornets | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Hornets | 57c | 68.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Hornets | 56c | 39.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Hornets | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…1b1abacked Hornets | 49c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Hornets | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 61c | 30.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Hornets | 55c | 26.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Hornets | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Raptors | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Hornets | 45c | 22.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.