NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da84af8ac2826e21697e1d808048f4bbf966f8d8a67ff5017fd3bbc3de09c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 54c | 24,309$13,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,065.13 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 19,070$9,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,482.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…2a62backed Under | 44c | 8,544$3,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 4,953$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…81debacked Over | 45c | 4,756$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 45c | 2,816$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.2 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Under | 44c | 1,359$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 961$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.47 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 954.99$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.7 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 572.02$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 46c | 406.52$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Over | 51c | 403.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 370$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.9 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 58c | 350.17$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 271.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 57c | 254.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 50c | 151$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 12c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 114.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…c6b7backed Over | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 57c | 107.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 44c | 105.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 48c | 99.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…d0f6backed Under | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…81f0backed Under | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…154ebacked Under | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…18ebbacked Under | 44c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ae…4a9ebacked Under | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…76cabacked Under | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…ec34backed Under | 44c | 74.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 58.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…6fb1backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…b570backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…f788backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…bf10backed Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21e…969abacked Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…56ffbacked Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…32ecbacked Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…e016backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…079fbacked Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…dc54backed Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…dd52backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd167…4b25backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…253cbacked Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…c6d3backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f47…d903backed Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2ac3backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…f5e6backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…8e32backed Under | 45c | 36.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.