NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3954425b90d337c495fa87f58bd696279df7fc33c434ce60503d55458a5cb51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 10,717$5,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,384.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 9,583$4,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,875.21 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 49c | 6,919$3,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,528.59 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 4,404$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.08 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 2,021$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,063$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.27 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 47c | 1,004$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 50c | 890.52$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.26 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 377.48$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 144$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bf…e473backed Over | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. HornetsHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.