Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b39f912814f41c7edc9a7693d54487611f4abee1ae4ab6cdf1a704be8a33d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,006,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,441,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,006,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e5…2778backed No | 0c | 128,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed No | 1c | 126,036$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 68c | 108,685$73,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,765.38 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 6c | 95,085$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 25c | 78,355$19,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,113.96 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 52c | 77,192$40,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,035.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 67,435$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.79 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…cd75backed No | 0c | 66,910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 58c | 58,521$34,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,358.87 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 73c | 58,183$42,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,961.17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 7c | 56,311$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,437.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +384.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 40c | 54,672$22,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,608.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 24c | 54,189$12,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,360.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 62c | 52,162$32,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,972.09 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 28c | 51,625$14,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,077.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…cbacbacked No | 79c | 50,271$39,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,768.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 5c | 47,423$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,230.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +440.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 7c | 45,683$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.61 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…a6a6backed No | 1c | 41,347$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…dad8backed Yes | 57c | 40,408$23,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,370.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 73c | 37,982$27,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,585.57 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 37,119$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,674.22 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 43c | 32,888$14,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,707.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 8c | 31,634$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,982.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 31,427$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,835.73 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,287.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,005.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 72c | 27,702$19,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,807.22 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 79c | 24,432$19,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,394.82 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed No | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed Yes | 5c | 22,242$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,155.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +645.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 65c | 20,770$13,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,166.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 20,701$6,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,411.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…bb93backed Yes | 5c | 20,020$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,930.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,736.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 8c | 19,623$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,147.23 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 23c | 19,523$4,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,018.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 47c | 18,819$8,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,962.81 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 11c | 18,602$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,528.04 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…a1f7backed Yes | 46c | 17,353$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,439.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…c734backed Yes | 13c | 17,307$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,119.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…1f0ebacked Yes | 68c | 17,224$11,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,461.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 74c | 17,021$12,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,461.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…320fbacked Yes | 14c | 16,580$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,280.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +257.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 74c | 16,505$12,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,295.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 16,103$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,146.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…3f23backed Yes | 57c | 15,787$8,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,804.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 20c | 15,677$3,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,565.76 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Yes | 70c | 14,904$10,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…62fabacked Yes | 36c | 14,011$5,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,996.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…6bfebacked Yes | 4c | 13,467$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,971.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +712.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 26c | 13,377$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440.89 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 11c | 13,300$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,800.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…16a2backed Yes | 29c | 13,242$3,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,384.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 70c | 11,623$8,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,524.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 11,001$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,780.95 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 4c | 11,000$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,531.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +523.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 31c | 10,781$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked Yes | 41c | 10,644$4,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,235.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…1743backed Yes | 6c | 10,620$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,933.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…7b6bbacked Yes | 33c | 10,559$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,089.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 74c | 10,545$7,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…3cb1backed No | 7c | 10,277$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 9c | 10,189$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.18 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 5c | 10,181$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,639.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +582%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 72c | 10,180$7,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.28 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,928 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…2698backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…d787backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 28c | 9,806$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,062.71 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 13c | 9,343$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,128.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +449.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…3674backed Yes | 32c | 9,339$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,339.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 21c | 9,210$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,317.5 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 8,979$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.9 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…77d9backed Yes | 80c | 8,960$7,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 10c | 8,921$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,060.37 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 15c | 8,806$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,518.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed No | 5c | 8,800$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 27c | 8,800$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,424.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 75c | 8,715$6,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,522.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…93d7backed Yes | 70c | 8,512$5,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…837dbacked Yes | 27c | 8,463$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a6…a0afbacked No | 0c | 8,438$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +619.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 19c | 8,000$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,511.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 7,875$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,349.18 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…c822backed Yes | 8c | 7,848$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,227.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +532.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 4c | 7,841$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 77c | 7,389$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.81 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…8533backed Yes | 7c | 7,347$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +323.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 31c | 7,220$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…4548backed Yes | 5c | 7,187$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,826.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +232.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…1533backed Yes | 13c | 7,158$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,225.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +369.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 36c | 7,102$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,562.16 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Yes | 52c | 7,078$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes | 49c | 6,854$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…5d85backed No | 7c | 6,712$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 6c | 6,616$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.35 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…bee6backed No | 15c | 6,572$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked No | 6c | 6,555$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 0c | 6,518$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…5060backed Yes | 42c | 6,281$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…412abacked No | 69c | 6,200$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,278 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.