Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93cb3616632292f873370cfe0fdf4f71f0d378f497fd7d237aff316ac9cb93fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,698,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,570,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,698,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac86…04debacked Yes | 0c | 67,606$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed Yes | 0c | 65,478$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 3c | 64,524$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 55,798$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.61 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed Yes | 2c | 48,685$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 43,121$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.15 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 5c | 41,608$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…9464backed Yes | 1c | 35,405$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…a6e1backed Yes | 3c | 33,485$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…75debacked Yes | 1c | 32,203$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed Yes | 4c | 27,500$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 2c | 26,406$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.06 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…256abacked Yes | 2c | 26,363$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 0c | 24,878$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…c143backed Yes | 1c | 24,740$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Yes | 4c | 24,285$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b01…0aa5backed Yes | 3c | 23,156$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed Yes | 7c | 20,938$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 1c | 20,791$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 3c | 19,798$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 1c | 19,309$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed Yes | 3c | 18,292$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,182$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 1c | 17,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed Yes | 2c | 16,150$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb8…4d53backed Yes | 3c | 15,917$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 1c | 15,429$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7370…c1abbacked Yes | 2c | 15,411$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 3c | 14,937$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 14,595$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.91 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,808$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes | 7c | 13,449$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 13,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 1c | 12,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…6609backed Yes | 3c | 12,486$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,400$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…e1e2backed Yes | 3c | 12,201$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 0c | 12,100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,822$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes | 1c | 11,543$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…8816backed Yes | 0c | 11,454$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes | 5c | 10,390$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 0c | 10,268$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 3c | 10,262$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 1c | 10,156$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 3c | 10,091$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a671backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 2c | 9,643$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,634$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…7dcebacked Yes | 4c | 9,550$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,425$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 5c | 9,380$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 4c | 9,346$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 2c | 9,221$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 9,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…d4c2backed Yes | 2c | 8,995$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 8,963$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.08 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…b94ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,854$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,710$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,650$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 8,349$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.79 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 8,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,903$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,807$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b95…da5fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,745$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…0354backed Yes | 1c | 7,674$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 7,577$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 7,547$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe7…2229backed Yes | 4c | 7,432$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 3c | 6,924$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 3c | 6,817$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…04b9backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…c8abbacked Yes | 2c | 6,394$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…05f5backed Yes | 5c | 6,361$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 9cpaid | +481.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Yes | 4c | 6,230$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…02c6backed Yes | 2c | 6,191$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…01b5backed Yes | 5c | 6,082$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,079$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 2c | 6,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,018$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -83%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…a4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…5d81backed Yes | 0c | 5,914$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 4c | 5,903$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 5c | 5,755$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…c734backed Yes | 2c | 5,754$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,711$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 5,631$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 6c | 5,626$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…9042backed Yes | 2c | 5,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…c20ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,372$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.