Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown end November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ada152b399d8bd705345182286d690858a109992c20ded2f6b76d211639763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $811,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $591,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $811,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea10…b758backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…1700backed Yes | 1c | 27,250$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 0c | 26,063$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes | 0c | 25,230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 0c | 24,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…2a9abacked Yes | 0c | 23,400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…f9cdbacked Yes | 1c | 19,633$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed Yes | 1c | 17,874$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 1c | 17,098$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 0c | 15,270$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 0c | 14,030$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed Yes | 0c | 13,306$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 1c | 11,758$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ca…ae5cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 1c | 9,742$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…942dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,344$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 1c | 7,722$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedb…e5a3backed Yes | 0c | 6,771$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…ec83backed Yes | 2c | 5,600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…a3d8backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ff…9b28backed Yes | 0c | 5,425$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,775$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…934bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed Yes | 1c | 3,270$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…ded2backed Yes | 2c | 3,001$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…2290backed Yes | 1c | 2,942$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,799$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7d…b46abacked Yes | 1c | 2,793$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…a881backed Yes | 0c | 2,700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ce…01f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…5d88backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b5…bdcabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…0febbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…258cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,923$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888e…9c77backed Yes | 1c | 1,808$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,377$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…eb43backed Yes | 2c | 809.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 7c | 772.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 6c | 563.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 502.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…5eacbacked Yes | 6c | 185$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown end November 10?this page
- Will the government shutdown end November 11?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 12?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 13?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown end November 14?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 15?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 16?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 17?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 18?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 19?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 20?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?No won
- Will the government shutdown end November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.