TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,257,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,099,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,257,060 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 837 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99e2…b7bebacked Yes1c214,158$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf57…77c7backed Yes1c153,852$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.02244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c149,664$4,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.981015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…9872backed Yes1c124,944$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes1c104,014$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.66494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed Yes1c101,880$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes6c99,347$5,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,657.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e40…3a12backed Yes4c79,000$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62d…c34dbacked Yes1c71,726$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.161788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+38%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc480…bb68backed Yes14c70,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,800520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe976…68d1backed Yes9c69,445$6,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,178.821717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes3c68,254$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.04382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes4c65,668$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.0318315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c65,086$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.61140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb663…8c6ebacked Yes4c58,782$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c55,778$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.491070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c53,139$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes4c51,878$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.1235123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa66c…f291backed Yes1c50,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6207…5259backed Yes3c50,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes1c48,451$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.29110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes1c47,619$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.8190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes6c43,898$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.49643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes5c41,057$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.331338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes4c40,000$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes1c39,530$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.33110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Yes3c39,423$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes7c38,498$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.36119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes18c37,335$6,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,876.617123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes2c35,500$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6221488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes2c34,090$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.95100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fbf6backed Yes7c33,962$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.3770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…d5bdbacked Yes37c33,554$12,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,345.78850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c30,082$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.8511210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes5c30,076$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.95230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed No79c30,032$23,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,398.521090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+49.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No75c30,020$22,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,506.6687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes6c30,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb15…7329backed Yes19c29,445$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,594.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x244a…a6c5backed Yes1c28,984$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes1c27,938$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…8e65backed Yes0c26,119$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…5303backed Yes2c25,979$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked No62c25,793$15,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,862.051450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…8b38backed Yes26c24,613$6,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,425.2460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d10…957cbacked Yes20c23,879$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,891.240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes3c21,058$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.291323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes19c20,545$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,889.734010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes6c20,064$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c19,611$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed No61c19,477$11,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,655.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes1c19,020$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ba…a8ccbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6212…322cbacked Yes5c18,738$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef5…1c5abacked No80c18,270$14,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No67c18,041$12,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.782540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes1c17,033$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.251024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c16,731$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.161431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bc…e6fcbacked Yes8c16,562$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes6c16,511$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa944…461abacked Yes6c16,013$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes0c15,948$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db8…ee4cbacked Yes1c15,873$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b4…9cc0backed Yes5c15,664$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes14c15,278$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.331513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc665…8c1ebacked Yes5c15,011$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd785…f5b9backed Yes2c15,004$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…71ecbacked Yes7c15,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e2…565bbacked Yes9c14,310$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…04b9backed Yes1c14,173$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.42128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8926…5aacbacked Yes15c13,763$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.08166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes2c13,502$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7918425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c13,332$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a00…a0c0backed Yes1c12,494$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd380…0700backed Yes1c12,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked Yes22c11,899$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed Yes1c11,187$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4ce…865cbacked Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes26c11,017$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.673716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6a…18eabacked Yes2c10,776$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e2…6078backed Yes7c10,698$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.4560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a8…2631backed Yes0c10,670$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No71c10,607$7,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.0858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes12c10,017$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c66…fcc1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6550…d966backed Yes40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No79c10,000$7,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.992680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb46…ca8bbacked Yes0c9,768$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ee…7b23backed Yes4c9,695$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3f…ec12backed Yes7c9,624$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8763…4c54backed Yes3c9,287$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes15c8,700$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…c665backed No69c8,660$5,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe590…b056backed Yes15c8,234$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2252030%6 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ed3…343cbacked Yes10c8,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea44…1e17backed Yes9c7,547$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed Yes0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No79c7,246$5,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.542875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.