TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$634,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5242…7aa6backed No0c228,460$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe929…67d3backed No0c131,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+88.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes77c70,488$53,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,539.6258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No20c54,314$10,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,836.692540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94a…fbe8backed No24c36,638$8,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,678.5440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes77c24,665$18,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,756.0163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed No17c24,261$4,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,107.3980%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes76c17,222$13,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c7…e53fbacked No2c11,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…420cbacked No37c9,264$3,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab45…c4f5backed Yes79c7,496$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe700…d6b9backed No12c6,804$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.78120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No17c5,425$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.084010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7004858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes80c4,518$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.2812259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb62f…e890backed Yes67c4,477$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes78c4,411$3,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.3287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b19…98f5backed No20c3,345$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce06…0bb0backed No36c2,499$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed No32c1,963$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No27c1,953$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.586111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes62c1,616$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.532142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x679a…7a49backed Yes77c1,473$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.97988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+90.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c1,395$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c1,355$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.621693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa86…2e0dbacked Yes66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2570…f09ebacked Yes78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes72c900$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed No20c871.12$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.934161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4eb…6055backed Yes75c779.88$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes71c765.42$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.837357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x154c…658ebacked Yes80c754.14$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.452045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes74c704.89$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.2826274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No22c699.97$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefb2…640cbacked No15c651$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.351145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12c7…bef9backed Yes66c614.37$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.67771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick72cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d22…ea55backed No26c552$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd6…4735backed Yes69c465.74$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.654269%29 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes65c462$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86d5…4a04backed No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e4…b365backed Yes66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+91%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78f…218ebacked Yes76c299.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes70c297.63$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.384042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes75c292.5$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.26761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Yes67c278.71$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c49…fbebbacked No18c273.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a7…7244backed No21c242.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked No31c210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.47231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x559c…8bedbacked No18c199.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080d…418ebacked No15c186.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa148…909fbacked No31c162.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc081…46eebacked No19c161.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4600…78aabacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4909…65a6backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.213100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff6…1855backed No24c126.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92a0…6dd4backed No40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x287d…0412backed No35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de4…63aebacked No24c110.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c104.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.451,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38765.5%57 W · 30 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb4b…5f00backed Yes74c92.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Yes80c81.32$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363969.2%27 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2165…8075backed Yes66c80.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.474671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e01…1211backed No23c77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5c…72e0backed No36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes75c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a0…faa8backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-75.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No32c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb015…5ed7backed Yes67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf5…69b6backed Yes69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes72c33.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.437549.3%37 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6b…a7b4backed Yes68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+45.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dcd…12a5backed Yes70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0907…06d1backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fad…82b1backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dec…af2cbacked Yes78c27.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.27100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+98.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd79c…5f50backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5f…c23ebacked Yes70c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-79.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f94…b760backed Yes68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+97.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc25a…fa2cbacked Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e9…ed9cbacked Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe4b…3847backed Yes69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.