TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,275,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,827,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,275,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 922 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c2,014,207$5,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,252.72234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb53…0412backed Yes0c788,756$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c742,312$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.31250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c724,315$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.02140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes13c368,953$48,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,778.611833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…2211backed Yes15c271,561$39,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,934.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes0c180,281$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.28560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+82.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c150,870$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.8718315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c136,671$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.09659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes1c127,899$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7724backed Yes17c116,655$20,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,033.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes5c107,302$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x226a…3e38backed Yes7c106,500$7,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,090.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes1c100,847$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.83110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes0c100,747$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.37180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes2c100,003$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.81110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92fc…1d78backed Yes14c94,387$13,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,67030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f0…d76cbacked Yes14c81,998$11,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,071.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes15c81,421$12,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,361.122445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf03…5083backed Yes3c79,289$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3604…4e5ebacked Yes0c79,000$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb80…a905backed Yes6c66,774$4,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e72…45adbacked Yes25c62,018$15,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,504.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20f…9755backed Yes15c60,954$9,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,429.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes16c52,631$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,499.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked No75c52,586$39,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,146.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes4c50,998$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.016810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d14…a653backed Yes15c48,042$7,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,377.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c47,018$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes3c46,212$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.878010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes13c45,702$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.875240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes3c45,133$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b91…33fdbacked Yes2c43,902$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes13c40,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7b…b315backed Yes8c38,969$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288c…a41dbacked Yes10c38,249$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.112045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3f…ec12backed Yes2c37,993$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes5c36,858$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.82100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1a…3e0cbacked Yes12c36,023$4,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,184.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes4c35,745$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.55120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c34,301$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.11488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes0c34,139$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef5…625bbacked Yes20c30,690$5,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,98830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c30,252$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c30,248$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.711015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No75c29,468$22,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,406.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfb…14e6backed Yes7c28,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No77c28,556$22,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,464.882085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes7c27,143$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875a…4290backed Yes24c25,693$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,130.091010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-86.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb292…22e0backed Yes5c25,179$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7343…f3a7backed Yes9c22,222$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes3c21,977$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.35128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c21,600$16,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,913.323724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes17c21,554$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes2c21,439$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.396417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…9238backed Yes19c20,790$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes15c20,668$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.12520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes14c20,500$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9501330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c20,370$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.37800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae4…d0c5backed No74c20,143$14,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,149.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…32d9backed Yes5c20,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472b…c594backed No78c19,837$15,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.632653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2217…3834backed Yes8c18,891$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb558…0978backed Yes11c18,718$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d5…5e70backed Yes6c18,571$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes8c18,519$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.112339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes7c18,216$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.3280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2f…a84dbacked Yes13c18,096$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.1260%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed Yes2c17,367$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9b…3cfbbacked Yes4c17,000$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa077…5715backed Yes6c16,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed Yes0c16,330$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes8c16,248$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.21375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed No80c16,145$12,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes14c16,010$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.447231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1f…ede7backed Yes0c15,425$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb05b…da41backed Yes3c15,328$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes3c14,703$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.853315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1d…0c33backed Yes7c14,300$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa764…2678backed Yes7c14,143$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd524…fd68backed Yes9c14,054$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b9…dd6fbacked Yes6c13,642$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccc…3b11backed Yes8c13,252$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes10c12,955$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.47156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes6c12,400$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.4170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5703…a472backed Yes0c12,300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a99…5309backed Yes0c12,161$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a27…731cbacked Yes4c12,150$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No75c12,127$9,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.071752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c12,033$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed Yes17c12,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0401926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9589…3775backed Yes1c11,917$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddff…baf6backed Yes0c11,700$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3917…7adbbacked Yes15c11,696$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70070%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeeca…09c7backed Yes1c11,625$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes19c11,354$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.411833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes8c11,259$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.491519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes18c11,000$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.