TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$775,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$711,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa42d…2e9abacked No3c131,823$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3201258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfd…bd9dbacked No14c36,632$4,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+113%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No22c35,708$7,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,816.4258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No18c28,487$4,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,988.7818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No22c28,088$6,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,278.4122216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No4c23,901$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.282313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe5…0309backed No26c17,338$4,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.542147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes77c17,008$13,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3283…1da9backed Yes80c15,400$12,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1021526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x79f8…9f03backed No32c15,010$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,873.461850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd19…101ebacked No27c14,730$3,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,931.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No26c12,958$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,421.84934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No9c9,149$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.171333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No19c8,403$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes74c7,431$5,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.017231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes75c7,280$5,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.8713863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked No27c7,277$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No13c7,045$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3aad…4e00backed Yes68c6,895$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.36366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked No30c6,687$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes66c6,677$4,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed Yes79c5,964$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.188038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No20c5,565$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.835034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e2…3570backed Yes69c5,138$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed No18c5,110$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.961020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No21c4,908$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.6828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d8…bad0backed No1c4,649$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes63c4,297$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.341963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbef5…1c5abacked No11c3,958$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe122…33febacked Yes73c3,479$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-61.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No27c3,344$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No15c3,310$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.711729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No12c3,050$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.823831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a3…e203backed Yes70c3,005$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.341315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb87f…48b2backed No30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d09…3150backed Yes69c2,881$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No26c2,532$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.282528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c00…f516backed No8c2,333$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb64…181ebacked No27c2,260$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e4…25abbacked No37c2,197$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes76c2,184$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.084643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e9…5044backed No17c2,168$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes69c2,055$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.981471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa131…dde2backed No34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e7…88adbacked No39c1,983$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No34c1,980$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.12580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a6…a455backed No35c1,974$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.37560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+96.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb474…e6fabacked Yes57c1,755$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…c2acbacked Yes76c1,722$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.34520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c1,533$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.021,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1462…156ebacked No34c1,300$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ca…a694backed No27c1,250$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No29c1,208$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.354136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes65c1,204$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.21825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No23c1,127$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.713627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No13c1,055$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.252227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No13c1,010$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.312450%12 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe988…8914backed Yes67c1,009$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed No3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e0…7395backed No36c1,000$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed No37c1,000$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3667810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed No43c976.74$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No37c950$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.54763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a3…12f0backed Yes78c941.11$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes71c931$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.042528%7 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-46.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No22c930.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd3…68d5backed No25c906.25$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes77c900.01$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.883560%21 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No23c882.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes69c814.29$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.295747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc9…8d53backed Yes71c708.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-76.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked No10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cb…d98dbacked Yes70c697.89$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes73c685$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.955240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe767…f2c8backed Yes74c667.19$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfc…1df1backed No9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603871.1%27 W · 11 L+6.9wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa29…879dbacked No31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No25c638.56$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.911554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes76c602.01$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1427357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e28…1cd5backed Yes69c600$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes64c600$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.51668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbab0…2b4abacked No43c600$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked No35c566.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69dc…0cf5backed Yes75c560$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd925…f36fbacked Yes74c552$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c2…7c65backed Yes79c540$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1253748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes57c500$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb80…a905backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf8…07fdbacked No27c500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1253839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1518…7812backed Yes58c500$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1779…4822backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1406100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed Yes63c476.87$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.873740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…7375backed Yes65c476.86$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes69c465$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.629041.1%37 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No27c408.49$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.982425%6 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes61c408.29$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.62532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.