TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,394,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,434,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,394,608 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c6,586,437$15,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,974.01234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c2,492,272$4,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,608.01140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb53…0412backed Yes0c707,787$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c617,703$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c504,192$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.5890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c421,162$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.3218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c399,995$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.99130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c323,265$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.721488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc14e…4585backed Yes0c300,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d5…6575backed Yes0c299,285$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f42…5b96backed Yes0c229,572$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes1c225,924$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.29280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e50…c644backed Yes0c207,513$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c199,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c159,347$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8069…938dbacked Yes0c156,809$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c149,450$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.058010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes0c148,345$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.69362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7262…dd7ebacked Yes0c125,978$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes0c124,997$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes0c108,000$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a9…f51ebacked Yes0c107,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c97,968$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.341070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0983…9711backed Yes0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes0c87,776$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c87,264$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd846…cf93backed Yes0c85,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044a…7cc7backed Yes0c79,733$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6af…0dfcbacked Yes0c79,667$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab5…63b6backed Yes0c79,298$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd7…7a16backed Yes0c79,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…9511backed Yes2c78,636$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3d…cda8backed Yes0c78,333$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b2…5eaebacked Yes0c77,666$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd904…137bbacked Yes6c76,309$4,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,240.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5577…9a36backed Yes0c76,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ae…77efbacked Yes0c75,333$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea69…d030backed Yes0c74,750$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14a…b3ecbacked Yes0c73,333$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a23…1960backed Yes0c72,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c9…d322backed Yes0c69,333$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81e…ad8fbacked Yes0c63,441$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes0c55,931$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes0c54,999$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9f…43efbacked Yes0c52,530$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff47…d81fbacked Yes0c51,362$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ae…0f8ebacked Yes0c49,661$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d3…f7b0backed Yes0c49,604$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eae…4ac1backed Yes0c49,602$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c21…57ffbacked Yes0c49,400$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d2…ec29backed Yes0c49,310$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c44,578$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.381519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9abf…0580backed Yes0c43,433$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c40,420$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.016810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed Yes1c40,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8be…830cbacked Yes6c38,798$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…0cb9backed Yes0c37,000$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes2c36,855$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2f…c157backed Yes0c35,119$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53d…5a38backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df8…590bbacked Yes0c33,147$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78be…6e6fbacked Yes0c31,857$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bce…907bbacked Yes0c30,870$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes1c30,288$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.143315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd522…43b2backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa1…d00abacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes1c29,423$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c26,299$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes3c25,718$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf30…6194backed Yes0c25,623$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16cb…b4babacked Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…0a12backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ed…f76fbacked Yes0c24,099$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1123…0d76backed Yes1c24,000$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c23,884$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe3…bb23backed Yes0c22,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b9…dd6fbacked Yes1c21,916$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e9…7f20backed Yes1c21,415$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d67…1b53backed Yes0c21,100$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c21,028$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.03800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeaa…efebbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…5726backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x117b…5db0backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ef…778ebacked Yes0c18,950$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c17,702$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa674…1bc6backed Yes0c17,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2a…7b04backed Yes0c16,333$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes0c16,128$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe176…58e4backed Yes1c15,400$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3084…e434backed Yes0c15,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b9…6768backed Yes3c15,314$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a3…1259backed Yes0c15,003$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbc…de30backed Yes0c15,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…b760backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2f…bff3backed Yes0c14,794$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce29…3518backed Yes2c14,778$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+106%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d0…ebb0backed Yes4c14,695$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes3c14,677$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.073823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.