TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,145,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,300,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,145,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde92…5e10backed Yes18c115,305$20,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,253.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes7c105,397$7,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,805.394528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…750bbacked Yes4c42,797$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.82220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4025…de4ebacked Yes17c29,019$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c4…13ebbacked Yes2c24,000$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes11c23,506$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.638713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes11c22,127$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.242412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes2c21,810$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c20,377$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.14140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…7ebfbacked Yes16c14,975$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0bd…f6a8backed Yes13c14,900$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.011020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked Yes10c14,617$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes10c14,055$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.512321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f36…4f21backed Yes13c13,336$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c13,287$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.676785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda0…9b66backed Yes8c13,067$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x282f…3c26backed Yes15c12,977$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.971136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes17c12,918$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.913036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c12,738$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.02260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…2885backed Yes15c12,717$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes4c12,043$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.363611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes10c10,800$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed Yes15c10,446$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.3670%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes12c10,236$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes15c10,235$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes4c9,243$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.691050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes14c8,847$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.225425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes4c8,517$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.31224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes5c8,500$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d78…6929backed Yes4c8,384$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a4…7e2dbacked Yes6c8,191$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c4…30a7backed Yes5c8,071$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes13c7,988$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.91643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4739…33c9backed Yes9c7,308$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.661625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c7,152$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.221203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes9c7,107$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.043225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c6,980$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.941463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49e7…407dbacked Yes14c6,545$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes15c5,659$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-61.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde83…d7eabacked Yes6c5,455$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c5,204$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.522125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89b…f512backed Yes20c5,077$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes20c5,031$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes14c4,999$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.832347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4438…7684backed Yes10c4,567$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes10c4,161$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.296111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1313…cf9abacked Yes17c4,070$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8470…74bdbacked Yes14c4,011$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…e98dbacked Yes14c4,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd71…74ccbacked Yes1c4,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…1b46backed Yes12c3,989$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.68137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes15c3,923$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.4423411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes1c3,792$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0513…6ee8backed Yes11c3,760$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes14c3,580$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes8c3,565$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.821015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4681…a224backed Yes13c3,555$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.821428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a3…6bd4backed Yes13c3,267$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4331811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde75…8596backed Yes17c3,254$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.11618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x430f…5947backed No80c3,240$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c3,093$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.481073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes6c3,002$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.22781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes15c2,937$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20cb…f655backed Yes7c2,800$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes20c2,734$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes13c2,581$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.95200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes11c2,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xec86…8ef3backed Yes1c2,498$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848e…2e45backed Yes2c2,410$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x366e…77fbbacked Yes1c2,408$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba04…3822backed Yes6c2,389$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…5d2cbacked Yes13c2,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes11c2,273$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f9…85febacked Yes1c2,249$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd59…d50bbacked Yes6c2,214$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes9c2,184$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.811431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes6c2,161$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.61728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+227.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,070$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.691,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56c…f597backed Yes12c2,041$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes1c2,035$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4683…84c2backed Yes1c2,030$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5302…0b79backed Yes15c2,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.81728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc786…d82ebacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+267.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd81…5194backed Yes5c1,977$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes20c1,938$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…a549backed Yes16c1,876$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…005bbacked Yes20c1,865$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Yes9c1,853$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57bc…d82dbacked Yes10c1,850$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc10a…49bfbacked Yes13c1,805$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b3…c26dbacked Yes3c1,803$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb678…1f09backed Yes19c1,789$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1feb…bdc1backed Yes13c1,786$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.61140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes6c1,726$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes10c1,659$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.