TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,721,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,795,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,721,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 464 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c488,745$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.07234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c242,369$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.37250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c154,522$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.3818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9c7fbacked Yes2c104,445$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.9870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c99,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb80…a905backed Yes10c94,967$9,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,924.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes1c56,633$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.24180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1e…4ef7backed Yes1c56,624$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c52,131$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.131488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes5c46,252$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.128010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6207…5259backed Yes1c44,559$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes3c40,029$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226a…3e38backed Yes6c37,998$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd291…bf6abacked Yes7c37,978$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes1c27,607$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.821323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ee…894bbacked Yes7c26,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes12c24,717$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.261833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes5c23,006$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.97128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df7…c902backed Yes15c22,705$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c22,343$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.376810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e4…6cf1backed Yes1c21,905$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes5c20,027$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.97110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes7c19,589$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.011333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes8c18,027$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.455240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes6c17,787$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…8b38backed Yes4c17,715$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.5460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc94…f201backed Yes12c17,271$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c9…e360backed Yes0c16,979$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…0c7fbacked Yes4c16,786$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c16,105$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.941015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c15,035$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.31360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No70c14,980$10,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,494.073748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1b…3be7backed Yes1c14,664$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes7c14,600$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.494010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…97a5backed Yes30c14,585$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.581723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3f…ec12backed Yes4c13,705$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes5c13,700$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.99280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes3c13,411$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8890%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ce…865cbacked Yes4c13,265$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1a…b29fbacked Yes8c12,975$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes12c12,838$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.532339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…3fe2backed Yes1c12,461$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb292…22e0backed Yes8c12,104$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…141bbacked Yes8c12,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0101910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+339.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes16c11,500$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes11c11,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.99270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f1…6712backed No78c10,938$8,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.581080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4014…3503backed Yes5c10,430$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes9c10,000$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00a3…e203backed Yes12c9,891$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.031315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf03…5083backed Yes3c9,704$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes8c9,252$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.2911726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66d5…5e70backed Yes13c9,251$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed35…2eaebacked Yes5c8,560$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86d…a948backed Yes4c8,092$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca18…9f67backed Yes14c7,776$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf1f…ede7backed Yes1c7,673$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…01bcbacked Yes2c7,630$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6779…8bb0backed Yes13c7,616$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x875a…4290backed Yes19c7,550$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.641010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-86.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x075d…e844backed Yes0c7,507$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd709…5f46backed Yes4c7,499$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc695…c521backed Yes13c7,307$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes5c7,200$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.413647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca3…fff2backed Yes15c6,799$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad75…6ab2backed Yes5c6,617$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed Yes24c6,583$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c6,219$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.91,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1833…0756backed Yes5c6,191$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes11c5,810$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.9612012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82b7…fcabbacked Yes3c5,733$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes15c5,700$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.137231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe10…e2d3backed Yes0c5,667$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes5c5,600$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.92425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daa…1f41backed Yes1c5,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes12c5,313$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.37825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e8…a858backed Yes1c5,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…70f6backed Yes0c5,170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f62…2772backed Yes1c5,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b9…b319backed Yes7c5,082$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.71910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x637f…9573backed Yes20c5,013$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a0…20dabacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…ed66backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…22f0backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Yes10c4,961$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e68…8e44backed Yes1c4,950$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe71f…283abacked Yes14c4,737$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…ac09backed Yes9c4,732$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…f8c2backed Yes1c4,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1119…7656backed Yes1c4,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2e…e4cebacked Yes4c4,590$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2d…aef6backed Yes11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da1…4c6cbacked Yes1c4,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf204…9cc2backed Yes1c4,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa5…ea9dbacked Yes1c4,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d67…553ebacked Yes1c4,400$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.