TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,003,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,459,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,003,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c199,996$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes0c134,566$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.823318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c77,547$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.55250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c59,633$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.6918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c45,094$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.19659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…9342backed Yes1c40,600$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…0cb7backed Yes1c23,980$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c23,728$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.371360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8558…d6c9backed Yes7c21,802$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c21,307$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.36234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c19,792$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.04306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…a007backed Yes0c19,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c1…b554backed Yes0c18,336$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a79…dcd1backed Yes1c16,779$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x126d…44b8backed Yes2c15,010$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c14,907$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes1c13,941$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c13,146$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.091070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c12,733$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.72482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c12,048$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.651,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29e…3bccbacked Yes0c12,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cca…782ebacked Yes1c12,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes3c11,639$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf1f…ede7backed Yes1c10,571$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes6c10,440$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4b…7e17backed Yes1c10,194$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c9,745$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c9,720$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.998010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes2c9,170$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c9,000$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c8,943$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.871010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed Yes6c7,930$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.55100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495e…ad10backed Yes6c7,913$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.34120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed Yes0c7,659$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes2c7,390$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x269c…d7debacked Yes1c7,180$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.44120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9b…e02abacked Yes1c7,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c6,627$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.59414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3166…2341backed Yes1c6,564$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593e…80aabacked Yes1c6,499$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes2c5,598$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.65140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c5,440$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.081488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes6c5,335$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.628540%34 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa588…ecc2backed Yes0c5,254$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7407…fe13backed Yes3c5,168$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.33219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fd…886abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15be…a491backed Yes0c4,932$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes0c4,720$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.663627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8134…da0abacked Yes2c4,341$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes4c4,226$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.686111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked Yes6c4,199$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.63175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…7707backed Yes0c4,194$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes4c4,164$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fd…0835backed Yes2c4,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-79.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc7…8c0abacked Yes9c3,581$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes4c3,459$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.123823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes1c3,425$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.04205%1 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Yes6c3,415$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002548%12 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…0959backed Yes5c3,342$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce29…3518backed Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.96850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+106%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b00…7e48backed Yes0c2,869$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5386…a641backed Yes0c2,866$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa91d…6261backed Yes0c2,813$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74d…6400backed Yes0c2,674$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f74…251ebacked Yes0c2,653$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes2c2,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes5c2,285$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e0…0663backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a32…6bbebacked Yes1c2,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes5c2,065$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.121650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9386…3a31backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37a…3687backed Yes1c1,999$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes4c1,987$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.612236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes2c1,977$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.22055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c1,785$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4411619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes1c1,699$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.213315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes1c1,690$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes6c1,685$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes6c1,639$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…e2c6backed Yes2c1,556$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31933.2%3 W · 90 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes3c1,484$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.92615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd7…e1ebbacked Yes6c1,465$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c00…f516backed Yes6c1,410$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd503…b38bbacked Yes2c1,364$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked Yes9c1,304$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda52…239dbacked Yes2c1,257$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x563e…6f4fbacked Yes2c1,052$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,023$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.63013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes5c1,018$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.87180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e35…cf32backed Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c7…932cbacked Yes1c999.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes3c932.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.416527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes3c874.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd031…b594backed Yes6c835.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes3c800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6f…d79abacked Yes6c781.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes2c761.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.924017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f69…55b1backed Yes4c750$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4d…c98abacked Yes4c711$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.