TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,969,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,648,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,969,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 655 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c206,142$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.17362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes7c178,087$13,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,289.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes28c131,832$36,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,912.971330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes1c120,475$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.913611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ef…039dbacked Yes2c103,411$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.751910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes32c82,689$26,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,318.411250%6 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+242.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c82,471$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.27659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c70,637$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.1818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes21c65,364$13,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,790.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf2…f6ccbacked Yes21c55,401$11,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,455.150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes2c48,170$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.68200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes31c44,356$13,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,671.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No76c44,166$33,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,695.042875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes4c40,364$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.097123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes5c40,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes30c37,354$11,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,227.4837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c34,287$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.861070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ef…4e37backed Yes4c33,338$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No71c30,289$21,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,872.783724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c29,868$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.03140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfae…7922backed Yes0c28,328$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c1…b554backed Yes0c27,846$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc893…b7b0backed Yes2c25,500$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed Yes12c25,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001478.6%11 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.50per pick29cpaid+200.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed No73c24,041$17,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,532.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5a…2fd2backed Yes0c23,750$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed Yes9c23,323$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.473016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked Yes6c21,224$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x472b…c594backed No69c20,134$13,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,274.882653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes10c18,664$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.43633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No74c16,283$12,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,261.52528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes2c16,156$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.482412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No78c15,330$11,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.611060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed Yes4c15,065$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-75%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes4c14,447$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.031513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba04…3822backed Yes0c14,333$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12da…d12dbacked No72c14,218$10,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,921.111266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed Yes22c13,450$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,967.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No64c13,001$8,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,627.311833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed No68c13,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb811…5434backed Yes3c12,844$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269c…d7debacked Yes3c12,010$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.28120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cca…782ebacked Yes3c12,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7120…201bbacked No77c11,724$8,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…c5efbacked Yes1c11,415$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes3c11,274$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Yes28c11,090$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.731030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa14…f533backed Yes1c11,080$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x437b…21c5backed Yes17c11,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No69c10,786$7,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,384.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick66cpaid-38.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a3…6bd4backed Yes1c10,524$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c7…932cbacked Yes4c10,222$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c10,024$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.918010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.52055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2002085%17 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes22c10,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1507020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed Yes2c10,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40e2…565bbacked Yes3c10,000$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes4c9,463$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No79c9,222$7,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.085034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7907…7e4abacked Yes4c9,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c8,571$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.931693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d750backed Yes4c8,566$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes3c8,560$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes3c8,193$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.651145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No79c8,013$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.881553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc757…68b0backed Yes2c8,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No73c7,815$5,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,128.2316761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa5f…7707backed Yes1c7,764$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes1c7,731$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.511323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2969…e520backed Yes27c7,670$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1209…4cdcbacked Yes1c7,620$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd1…0a4abacked Yes2c7,570$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed Yes3c7,251$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.472634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No73c7,113$5,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c7,020$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.851431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes2c6,951$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.89230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes36c6,800$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…d5afbacked Yes3c6,766$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e80…b432backed No76c6,595$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…203cbacked Yes29c6,500$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9101040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes4c6,250$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5537…62e1backed No72c6,200$4,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f36…4f21backed Yes1c6,004$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes7c5,986$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe51c…eedbbacked Yes2c5,937$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed No77c5,916$4,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.26580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes1c5,871$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes5c5,726$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked Yes28c5,546$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.1813038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…4d36backed Yes1c5,413$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes4c5,314$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.934934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes2c5,199$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.333318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,184$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.191,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes10c5,082$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5d…be63backed Yes3c5,058$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302015%3 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes1c5,030$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes3c5,008$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1885…eb78backed Yes28c4,996$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.