TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,436,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,740,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,436,907 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf57…77c7backed Yes1c104,263$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.98244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c99,997$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes9c88,797$7,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,686.3580%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c64,908$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.511015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c47,248$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.491070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf399…0129backed Yes1c41,300$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c36,635$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.48430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes6c35,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.99319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes3c32,652$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.111338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes2c32,258$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes9c30,028$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.54230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c27,647$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.52140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…04b9backed Yes1c20,610$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.42128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc33…633ebacked Yes1c16,333$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c15,554$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes2c15,191$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes1c14,286$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes8c13,917$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.3950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes7c13,393$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c13,147$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes0c12,936$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63170%0 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e2…4dd4backed Yes0c12,230$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed Yes2c11,419$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.521968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes3c10,458$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2791001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa694…3f17backed Yes3c10,392$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,255$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c10,176$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd380…0700backed Yes1c10,104$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes1c9,685$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes1c7,926$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.191024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c7,620$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.131431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c7,601$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Yes7c6,759$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4952030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes2c6,666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes2c6,551$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes8c6,298$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.82643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c6,058$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.73260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c6,015$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.016785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc46…c7c5backed Yes11c5,289$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb9…6e23backed Yes10c5,192$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes8c5,069$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c5,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…1119backed Yes1c4,644$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked Yes1c4,641$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,432$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c4,332$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.523718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes5c4,185$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.526111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04b…04b2backed Yes7c4,165$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,123$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.312125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c3,554$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.531463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes2c3,429$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffa6…08a2backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb23…da17backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb46…ca8bbacked Yes1c3,219$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b9…b319backed Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c3,084$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.791203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c3,016$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.522999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d90…f272backed Yes2c3,006$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7575…6a41backed Yes2c2,919$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…fbbebacked Yes7c2,863$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8c…92e8backed Yes10c2,798$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c2,746$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.78781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd133…972cbacked Yes5c2,732$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ed…a349backed Yes1c2,727$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c2,668$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.211073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a8…9f9abacked Yes10c2,615$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4104…e39abacked Yes1c2,562$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes3c2,554$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes4c2,523$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.71323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1139…0471backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd3…14a7backed Yes6c2,499$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f07…fbdebacked Yes2c2,396$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ad…9186backed Yes7c2,381$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x553b…8735backed Yes11c2,284$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.55110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb5b…84e8backed Yes1c2,166$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc274…f637backed Yes2c2,158$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes1c2,094$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes3c2,032$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes1c1,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.996810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd762…b6f3backed Yes6c1,957$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes5c1,954$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.353611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32b…6d74backed Yes2c1,902$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4590%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb900…3d9abacked Yes5c1,885$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes11c1,876$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c1,869$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef3…acdfbacked Yes6c1,807$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0066…f2e4backed Yes6c1,777$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes3c1,766$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.487357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc08…6be7backed Yes5c1,713$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0980%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed Yes6c1,668$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes2c1,593$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3f…ec12backed Yes13c1,538$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9622…c630backed Yes7c1,527$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5479…a49abacked Yes7c1,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes13c1,431$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.45598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.