TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,285,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,392,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,285,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf98d…7adbbacked Spurs60c374,894$223,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,409.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hawks41c374,585$152,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,973.325248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks41c152,204$62,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,403.7787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks42c146,718$61,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,675.24,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks39c116,050$45,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,691.5572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs59c108,233$64,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,105.322,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs59c100,192$59,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,057.221,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Hawks46c86,108$39,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,83221944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Spurs58c66,512$38,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,006.0722453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Spurs60c43,774$26,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,567.182,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks44c38,002$16,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,888.952,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15bd…3e07backed Spurs69c32,427$22,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,910.512665.4%17 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Spurs59c31,788$18,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,033.274961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Spurs60c30,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0004456.8%25 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x17fb…a485backed Hawks45c26,942$11,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,996.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Spurs60c25,000$15,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,95018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Spurs61c24,000$14,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,36021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Hawks40c24,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs57c20,854$11,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,969.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Spurs60c20,478$12,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,291.1727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks42c20,222$8,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,441.1974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Spurs60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,60038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Hawks40c20,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0004744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs57c18,147$10,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,730.334,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks5c17,960$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.851,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hawks40c16,875$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.9866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hawks43c15,965$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,862.6655346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Hawks39c15,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs53c15,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,05026753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hawks39c15,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,899.9635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Spurs67c13,985$9,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,575.696051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spurs58c13,869$8,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,787.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Spurs60c13,365$8,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,322.961,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf526…55c8backed Hawks8c13,221$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick22cpaid+101.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Spurs63c13,156$8,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,823.2417441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Hawks44c11,319$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Spurs59c10,633$6,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.3910547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks40c10,577$4,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,225.71,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Hawks21c10,518$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.1813435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Hawks40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Hawks43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30012147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Spurs56c10,000$5,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,35014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hawks3c9,218$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.531,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Spurs59c9,000$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6903063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hawks40c8,124$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bf…c32cbacked Spurs57c7,824$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ed…fbf5backed Hawks43c7,816$3,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,361.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…d195backed Spurs57c7,500$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,224.981127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Spurs60c6,666$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.41,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs80c6,478$5,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.088,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Spurs59c6,179$3,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.3648448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Hawks39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3404035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Spurs77c6,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hawks43c5,978$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.6336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs56c5,716$3,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs73c5,309$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.1176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Spurs80c5,079$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.281,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Spurs59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0501,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hawks40c4,918$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.4396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Spurs58c4,799$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.1744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…c96dbacked Spurs61c4,770$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.3424329.6%72 W · 171 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Hawks18c4,700$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks40c4,603$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.081,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3300…568bbacked Spurs57c4,507$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks40c4,406$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.531,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Spurs59c4,156$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.7444648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Spurs60c4,018$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.032070%14 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec32…1634backed Hawks42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.941546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Hawks39c3,918$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.4317141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Hawks44c3,826$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.358750.6%44 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hawks40c3,618$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.7161835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Spurs64c3,600$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2885052%26 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hawks1c3,490$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hawks43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs60c3,371$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.323,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hawks42c3,361$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.739349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Hawks44c3,289$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.0361851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Spurs61c3,279$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.698246.3%38 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9768…f983backed Hawks1c3,154$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hawks5c3,090$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.011,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks44c3,034$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.8295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Spurs57c3,021$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.3950838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Spurs57c3,018$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.5422449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa50e…ee04backed Hawks43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2901353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Hawks1c2,987$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6967911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Spurs57c2,886$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.8216844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ef…e7eabacked Spurs56c2,843$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e6…5554backed Hawks44c2,835$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Spurs60c2,808$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.335347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Spurs58c2,758$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.2447949.7%238 W · 241 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b7…430cbacked Spurs60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f17…c521backed Hawks41c2,400$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc48a…05cbbacked Hawks43c2,350$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80c…76f0backed Spurs57c2,350$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Spurs59c2,059$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.3872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…f4f2backed Spurs59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+103.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.