NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda92a93c714e77ea7100aa2482bfcee7d6a0594d228004d792bc2bcbd1a1ff51

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Spurs, Hawks
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,885 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	46c	6,593$3,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,065.12	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs	54c	5,695$3,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,596.94	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Spurs	53c	3,500$1,855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,645	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Hawks	45c	2,930$1,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.5	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Hawks	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Spurs	53c	217$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.99	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Hawks	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks	47c	140.26$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.92	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Hawks	46c	130$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.8	173	41%71 W · 102 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs	54c	127.43$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.62	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Spurs	54c	127.43$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.62	168	44%74 W · 94 L	-11.8wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.07	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	66c	102.08$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.22	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Spurs	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Hawks	43c	98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.14	87	59.8%52 W · 35 L	+7.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Spurs	57c	96.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.49	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Spurs	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Hawks	44c	90$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Hawks	45c	74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Hawks	47c	73$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.31	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Spurs	53c	71.45$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.58	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Hawks	43c	68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.24	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Hawks	46c	58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Spurs	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bf…0297backed Spurs	57c	48$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.79	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Spurs	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Spurs	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Spurs	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…9b15backed Spurs	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Spurs	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Spurs	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Spurs	57c	37$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.91	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hawks	46c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Spurs	55c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.75	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Spurs	57c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x684b…47edbacked Spurs	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Hawks	48c	29.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked Spurs	53c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked Spurs	55c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-6.0wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Spurs	57c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Spurs	53c	24.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.51	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Spurs	56c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed Spurs	56c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Spurs	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Spurs	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed Spurs	57c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event