NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed07ebac27f44c55fa470b4477dbf8e1a85c521dab2c2cd42a53d2f16f05f871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 7,702$3,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,868.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 50c | 5,547$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.58 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 2,378$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 26c | 189.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…895fbacked Over | 50c | 185.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…dd67backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…4f76backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HawksSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.