NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4ed25d8cd1864757fbfc3de0708f7dcba033e127c8845a1435a42059b413b6

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,225 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under	50c	2,328$1,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,164	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under	50c	2,123$1,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,061.5	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	51c	1,895$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.75	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	50c	1,096$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Under	56c	999.97$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.99	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	765.43$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.64	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	44c	695$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.83	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4862…59f7backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc820…5366backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	54c	230.74$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.14	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	47c	209.53$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.48	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	50c	208$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	50c	208$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Over	46c	163.04$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aef…dc0fbacked Over	50c	160$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under	55c	156$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.2	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Under	54c	147$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.62	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	56c	119$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.36	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2883…6ddabacked Under	55c	114$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.3	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a20…af22backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3b0…e5efbacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+119.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	57c	96.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.49	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Under	56c	83$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.52	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f47…d903backed Over	46c	59$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	44c	55.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1226…abd8backed Over	45c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	50c	53.11$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Under	49c	52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.52	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Under	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Over	50c	42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Over	46c	38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-9.8wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Over	46c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Under	50c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Over	44c	32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Over	44c	29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-44%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked Over	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bf…0297backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked Over	44c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Over	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Under	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11a4…bbe8backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event